Mets vs Nationals Prediction 8/21/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Nationals Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, August 21^st at the Nationals Park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 51-75 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL East. The Nationals have a 25-39 home record and are 64-54 in over/under. They are coming off 5-4 home victory over the Mets, which ended their previous two-game losing streak. Over is 4-2-3 in their last 9 games, and are playing the Yankees and the Phillies next.

The Nationals have a .244 batting average this season, .308 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.35 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. CJ Abrams leads the Nationals with 120 hits, and is the team’s best hitter with a .267 batting average. James Wood adds a team-high 80 RBI and leads the team in home runs, with 25.

MacKenzie Gore (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 5-12 record, 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 67-59 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 26-35 road record and are 56-63 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-5 road defeat by the Nationals, which ended their three-game winning streak. Over is 6-2-2 in their last 10 games and are playing the Braves and the Phillies next.

The Mets have a .244 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .418 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 130 hits, while Pete Alonso adds a team-high 101 RBI and leads the team in batting average with .265. Juan Soto adds team-high 31 home runs.

Sean Manaea (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 1-1 record, 4.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last eight games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won six of the Mets’ last seven games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in six of the Mets’ last seven games.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Nationals have lost each of their last 10 day games following a home win.
• The Mets have won each of their last 10 games as favorites against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games at Nationals Park following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against the Nationals following a road loss.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last five day games against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last nine Thursday games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last three day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Nationals’ last six day games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets’ last three day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Mets’ last 13 games at Nationals Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last three games between the Mets and Nationals at Nationals Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (5.34).
• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.271).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (116).
• The Mets rank 27th in the league for walks allowed this season (450).

Mets vs Nationals Prediction

The Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Nationals, but both teams are tied 3-3 wins in their last 6 meetings in Washington. Over is 4-3-3 in their last 10 meetings.

In this Mets vs Nationals Prediction, the Mets are coming as -150 road favorites. Both pitchers have underwhelming home/away splits, as Gore has a 4.62 home ERA, and Manaea a 4.38 road ERA, and both are coming into this matchup in poor form, as they both have a 1-4 record in their last 5 starts, with a 5.47 and 6.04 ERA in that span. The Mets’ offense has come back to life lately, and the Nationals have scored 5+ runs in two of their last three games. The first two games of this series had 9 total runs each, so I like another high-scoring affair today. Take the over 8 in this one.