Mets vs Padres Prediction 9/18/25 MLB Picks Today

The Mets and Padres meet on Thursday in MLB action from Citi Field. Here’s a Mets vs Padres prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Mets vs Padres pick. 

Another Win for the Padres

It was another key win for the Padres on Wednesday, and the offense was elite. The Padres scored four runs in the 5th inning, and that ended up being the difference. Manny Machado hit a home run and drive in four RBIs. Nick Pivetta was on the mound and he went 4.2 innings giving up seven hits and three runs. The bullpen then came in and locked down. The Padres have won three of the last four games. The one loss was against the Mets, and they gave up eight runs in that game. 

The Padres are averaging 4.28 runs while their pitching is giving up 3.88 runs per game. The offense is ranked 19th while the pitching is ranked 2nd. Randy Vasquez gets the start and he sits with a 5-6 record and an ERA of 3.72. In his last start against the Rockies he went six innings giving up four hits and zero runs. Two starts ago against the Rockies he went six innings giving up eight hits and three runs. 

Why the Padres Will Beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost six of their last seven games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have won seven of their last eight games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four home games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.

Another Disappointing Loss for the Mets

The Mets have really blown their season the last couple of months, and Wednesday was another disappointing day. The Mets finished the game with four runs, but their pitching staff gave up seven and that led to the defeat. Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, and Francisco Alvarez all hit solo home runs. David Peterson went five innings giving up six hits and six runs. He had three walks and one strikeout. 

The Mets are averaging 4.71 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.39 runs per game. The offense is ranked 11th in all of college football, while the defense is ranked 18th. Pete Alonso has hit 36 home runs and driven in 119 RBIs so far this season. Getting the start for the Mets will be Jonah Tong and he sits with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 8.49. In his last start against the Texas Rangers he went 0.2 innings giving up four hits and six earned runs. 

Why the Mets will Beat the Padres

• The Padres have lost each of their last six games at Citi Field following a win.
• The Mets have won each of their last four home games against the Padres following a loss.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Padres following a home loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against the Mets following a road win.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four home games against NL West opponents.

Mets vs Padres Prediction 

This game is going to get out of hand early. Vasquez at times has been a bit inconsistent, but he’s the much better pitcher in this game. Tong is on the mound for the Mets, and he’s been awful all season. In his last stat he gave up four hits and six earned runs and didn’t even make it out an inning. The Padres bats are going to be hot early, and they will chase Tong. The Padres are going to end up cruising here to an easy victory. The Padres might finish this game with 10 or 11 runs total. Back the Padres on the run line.