Mets vs Phillies Prediction 9/17/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 17th at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 69-83 this year after they lost all three against the Orioles by scores of 1-2, 5-7, and 1-7. In game three, New York fell behind in the first inning and never got back into it for the loss. The Mets recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Semien, who went 1-4 with one RBI. Curry allowed six earned runs over 3.0 innings for the loss, while Yan threw three innings in relief. Prior to that series, New York lost two out of three against the Yankees, but did sweep the Marlins in three games before that. 

This season, New York has a 4.18 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while they have scored 650 runs with a .238 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. Juan Soto has led the Mets with 25 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 16 home runs and 74 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Nolan McLean, who is 11-9 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 166.2 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 84-68 this season after they split two games with the Nationals by scores of 3-6 and 3-0. In game two, Philadelphia scored two runs in the first inning and one in the seventh in the shutout win. The Phillies recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Bohm, who went 2-2 with one RBI. Wheeler allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Duran picked up the save. Prior to that series, Philadelphia lost two out of three against the Braves and two out of three against the Astros.  

This season, Philadelphia has a 3.99 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .247 opponent batting average, while they have scored 681 runs with a .241 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 45 home runs and 95 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added 28 home runs and 83 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 6-10 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 161.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Phillies have lost each of their last 14 games as underdogs against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have won each of their last 12 games as home favorites against the Phillies following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against NL opponents following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against NL opponents.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Mets have lost five of their last six games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won four of the Mets’ last five games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games at Citi Field following a loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Citi Field against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against the Mets.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Mets’ last nine home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last four games as underdogs against the Mets have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last six games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the last eight night games between the Phillies and Mets.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two games against NL East opponents.
• Nolan McLean has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Mets as favorites.
• Nolan McLean has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his seven previous home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Juan Soto has recorded two hits in each of his last eight appearances with the Mets as favorites against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in five of his six previous appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a losing record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances against the Mets.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 11 games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Edmundo Sosa has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (45) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (195).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.308).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1476).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup on a four game losing streak and they have scored one run or fewer in three of those four losses. The Mets are 34-43 at home this year, while the Phillies are 43-34 on the road. Philadelphia has lost three of their last five games, but they have scored three runs or fewer in three of their last four. The Phillies are starting Nola, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, while McLean has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five. Take the under here.