Mets vs Pirates Prediction 3/26/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, March 26th at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets went 83-79 last season and they finished second in the NL East standings, 13 games behind the Phillies for first. The Mets started the season with a 3-1 loss to the Astros on the road and they lost two of the three games in that series. New York had a great start to the season, but they faded in August and September. The Mets finished tied with the Reds for the last wild card spot, but they lost the tiebreak and missed the playoffs. New York went 49-32 at home and 34-47 on the road, while they scored 766 runs and allowed 715 runs last year. 

Last season, New York had a 4.03 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while they scored 766 runs with a .249 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Pete Alonso (now in Baltimore) led the team with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs, while Juan Soto added 43 home runs and 105 RBIs last year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Freddy Peralta, who went 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 176.2 innings for the Brewers last season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates were 71-91 last year and they finished fifth in the NL Central standings, 26 games behind the Brewers for first. Pittsburgh started the season with a walk-off loss to the Marlins by a score of 5-4 and they lost three of the four games in that series. The Pirates battled some injures and never really got going last year, but did show some life by winning six of their last eight games. Pittsburgh went 44-37 at home and 27-54 on the road, while they scored 583 runs and allowed 645 runs last year. 

Last season, Pittsburgh had a 3.76 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while they scored 583 runs (last in the MLB) with a .231 batting average and a .305 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds led the team with 16 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Oneil Cruz added 20 home runs and 61 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Paul Skenes, who went 10-10 with a 1.97 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 187.2 innings pitched last year. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last four day games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have won each of their last six Thursday games against NL Central opponents.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last three games between the Pirates and Mets.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four day games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last five Thursday games.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last six day games against the Pirates at Citi Field.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against the Pirates at Citi Field.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost eight of their last 12 games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against the Mets.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against the Mets.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last eight day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eleven of the Pirates’ last 13 day games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Mets’ last 10 home games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Pirates’ last seven games at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Luis Robert has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as a favorite in home openers.
• Jorge Polanco has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six home appearances against the Pirates.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 19 games as home favorites.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in seven of his last nine home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Bo Bichette ranked T2nd in the league in Hits (181) last season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last three games against the Mets.
• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two season openers as underdogs.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Paul Skenes ranked 1st amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (1.97) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets ranked 2nd in the league for home runs allowed last season (149).
• The Mets were one of only four teams in the league to have ranked top 10 in both steals and home runs last season.
• The Pirates ranked 30th in the league for runs scored last season (583).
• The Pirates ranked 30th in the league for home runs last season (117).

Mets vs Pirates Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this matchup looking to take the next step in their rebuild and they will have Skenes on the mound, who is one of the best pitchers in the MLB. New York missed the postseason in 2025 and they made a few big roster changes in the offseason. The Mets will counter with Peralta, who was very good for Milwaukee last year. I do think Skenes is the better option on the mound, but I don’t trust their offense at all. Take the Mets here.