Mets vs Pirates Prediction 3/28/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, March 28th at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 1-0 this season after they defeated the Pirates by a score of 11-7 in their first game. New York scored five runs in the bottom of the first inning and they added five more runs in the 5th/6th innings to seal the win. The Mets recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Baty, who went 1-5 with three RBIs in the game. Peralta allowed six hits and four earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Myers picked up a hold, but did allow an earned run in relief. 

Last season, New York had a 4.03 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while they scored 766 runs with a .249 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Pete Alonso (now in Baltimore) led the team with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs, while Juan Soto added 43 home runs and 105 RBIs last year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who went 9-6 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 168.2 innings pitched last season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-1 this year after they lost game one by a score of 11-7 on Thursday. Pittsburgh led 2-0 in the top of the first inning, but they had some fielding issues in the bottom of the first and the game got away from them. The Pirates recorded 10 hits and they committed one error, while they were led by Lowe, who went 2-4 with two home runs and three RBIs. Skenes allowed four hits and five earned runs over 0.2 innings for the loss, while Mattson allowed three hits and two earned runs over 0.2 innings of relief work. 

Last season, Pittsburgh had a 3.76 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while they scored 583 runs (last in the MLB) with a .231 batting average and a .305 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds led the team with 16 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Oneil Cruz added 20 home runs and 61 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who went 6-15 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 176.1 innings pitched last year. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won seven of their last eight home games against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight games at Citi Field against teams that held a winning record.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last four games between the Pirates and Mets.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have won the first inning in four of their last five games.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven day games against the Pirates at Citi Field.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against the Pirates at Citi Field.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last six day games following a win.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Mets.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Mets’ last nine day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last four games as underdogs against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Mets’ last 11 home games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last six Saturday games against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Marcus Semien has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 23 games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in five of his last six appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Pirates as road underdogs.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last three games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Mets vs Pirates Prediction 

New York was able to get the high scoring win in game one on Thursday afternoon and both teams will look for better pitching here. The Mets are starting Peterson, who had a decent 2025, but did have a slightly elevated WHIP. The Pirates are going with Keller, who had similar numbers to Peterson last year, but did have a better WHIP. I think the high scoring will continue with this pitching matchup, so I like the over here.