Mets vs Pirates Prediction 5/12/25 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Mets meet Monday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Mets vs Pirates Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send out Paul Skenes for the start here and Skenes is 3-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 47 strikeouts this season. This will be Skenes’ second career start against the Mets. David Peterson will get the start for the Mets here and is 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 36 strikeouts this season. In his career, Peterson is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 10 strikeouts against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to build on to their 4-3 win over the Braves in Sunday’s series finale against the Atlanta Braves to improve to 14-27 on the year. After this series, the Pirates will head on the road again for a series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Pirates Looking For Consistency After Series Win

Bryan Reynolds has 34 hits with 5 doubles, 5 home runs and 19 RBIs while also leading the Pirates with 51 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 8 home runs and 18 RBIs with 16 stolen bases while Isiah Kiner-Falefa has 28 hits with 6 stolen bases. Emmanuel Valdez also has a pair of triples as well this season. Tommy Pham has 4 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 29 hits with 7 doubles and KeBryan Hayes has 37 hits with 14 RBIs and 4 stolen bases.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Mets have lost four of their last six games as favorites following a win.
• The Pirates have won six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games against teams that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Pirates’ last five road games against the Mets.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog against the Mets.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one Single in each of the Pirates’ last nine road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to add on to their 6-2 win over the Chicago Cubs last time out to improve to 26-15 on the year. After this series, the Mets will head on the road for a rivalry series against the New York Yankees.

Mets Win Back-To-Back Series

Pete Alonso has 48 hits with 15 doubles, 9 home runs, 34 RBIs and a .320 batting average while Juan Soto has 38 hits with 9 doubles, 8 home runs and 19 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 49 hits with 7 stolen bases along with 7 doubles, 9 home runs and 26 RBIs while Mark Vientos has 5 home runs, 17 RBIs, but 31 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 33 hits with 6 doubles and 8 home runs and 25 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 8 doubles and Luisangel Acuna has 10 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last 14 Monday night games.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven games at Citi Field following a win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against the Mets following a win.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Pirates’ last six games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brett Baty has hit at least one home run in each of his last three home appearances with the Mets against NL opponents.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in eight of the Mets’ last nine games against the Pirates at Citi Field.
• Juan Soto has scored at least one run in eight of the Mets’ last nine games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Jesse Winker has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against the Pirates.
• Nick Madrigal has recorded a Single in each of his last nine appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.434) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets’ last five night games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Mets vs Pirates Prediction

I’m on the Mets here. I get the case to be made for the Pirates catching plus money with Paul Skenes going here. However, I still have my concerns about this Pirates offense even with Skenes going because there’s only so much that Skenes can do. But at the end of the day, the Pirates have to give him run support, and I don’t trust them to do that. I think the Mets hold it down at home, and they get the win here. Give me the Mets.