Mets vs Red Sox Prediction 7/10/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 10th at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 40-54 this season after they won two out of three against the Royals by scores of 12-16, 6-2, and 7-3. In game three, New York trailed 2-1 in the fourth inning, but they scored five straight runs to get the win. The Mets recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Soto, who went 1-2 with one home run and one RBI. Manaea allowed six hits and two earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Williams pitched a scoreless ninth. Prior to that series, New York split four games with the Braves and lost two out of three against the Blue Jays. 

This season, New York has a 4.32 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while they have scored 394 runs with a .235 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. Juan Soto has led the Mets with 21 home runs and 50 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 10 home runs and 51 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Nolan McLean, who is 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 101.1 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 43-48 this year after they swept the White Sox by scores of 8-1, 5-0, and 2-1. In game three, Boston scored both of their runs in the fourth inning, which was enough to get the low scoring win. The Red Sox recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Durbin, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Sandoval allowed five hits and one earned run over 4.1 innings, while Guerrero picked up the win and Chapman got the save. Prior to that series, Boston swept the Angels in three games, but lost two out of three against the Nationals before that. 

This season, Boston has a 3.67 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while they have scored 372 runs with a .244 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Willson Contreras has led the Red Sox with 20 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Jarren Duran has added 13 home runs and 44 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Sonny Gray, who is 10-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 89.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last nine games as favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight road games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in six of their last seven home games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in 12 of their last 13 games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The road team has won each of the Red Sox’s last eight games.
• The Mets have lost four of their last six games as favorites following a win.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight road games.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven night games.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in four of their last five games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Mets’ last nine home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Red Sox’s last nine games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Mets’ last four games as favorites.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games.
• Nolan McLean has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his four previous home appearances against AL opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 18 home appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Nolan McLean has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.414) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Caleb Durbin has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as underdogs.
• Sonny Gray has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 12 road games against NL East opponents.
• Sonny Gray has recorded a win in each of his last six road appearances.
• Sonny Gray ranks T3rd in the league for Wins (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (116).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.304).
• The Red Sox rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (81).
• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (372).

Mets vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston comes into this matchup on a nice winning streak and they have allowed one run or fewer in four of their last five games. The Red Sox are 26-21 on the road this year, while the Mets are 21-25 at home. New York has won four of their last five games and they have scored 6+ runs in five straight. The Mets are starting McLean, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, while Gray has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five outings. Take the under here.