Mets vs Red Sox Prediction 7/12/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 12th at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 40-56 this year after they lost the first two games in this series by scores of 2-6 and 0-4. In game two, New York fell behind in the fourth inning and never got their offense going in the shutout loss. The Mets recorded three hits and they were led by Alvarez, who went 2-3 in the game. Peralta allowed three hits and two earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Myers allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, New York won two out of three against the Royals and split four games with the Braves. 

This season, New York has a 4.31 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while they have scored 396 runs with a .234 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. Juan Soto has led the Mets with 21 home runs and 51 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 10 home runs and 51 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Zach Thornton, who is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 10.1 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 45-48 this season after they won game two by a score of 4-0 on Saturday afternoon. Boston scored two runs in the fourth inning and two in the eighth to get the win. The Red Sox recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Yoshida, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Rivera allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 3.2 innings, while Moran got the win and Slaten picked up a hold. Prior to this series, Boston swept the White Sox in three games and swept the Angels in three games. 

This season, Boston has a 3.61 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while they have scored 382 runs with a .244 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Willson Contreras has led the Red Sox with 20 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Jarren Duran has added 13 home runs and 44 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Payton Tolle, who is 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 80.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The underdogs have won each of the last five games between the Red Sox and Mets.
• The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in seven of their last nine games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The road team has won each of the Red Sox’s last 10 games.
• The Mets have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last 10 road games.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Mets’ last six day games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Red Sox’s last six day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 road games against NL East opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 12 of the Mets’ last 13 Sunday day games against American League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with his team as an underdog against the Red Sox.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.410) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Andruw Monasterio has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against the Mets.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 14 road games against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (117).
• The Mets rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.304).
• The Red Sox rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (85).
• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for RBIs this season (365).

Mets vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston rolls into this matchup on an eight game winning streak and they have allowed two runs or fewer in five straight starts. The Red Sox are 28-21 on the road this year, while the Mets are 21-27 at home. New York has split their last four games, but they have scored 6+ runs in three of their last five. The Mets are starting Thornton, who has allowed five earned runs over 10.1 innings, while Tolle has allowed 0, 6, 0, 3, and 3 earned runs in his last five outings. I don’t love how Tolle has been inconsistent, so give me the Mets here.