Cincinnati Reds (51-47) vs. NY Mets (55-43)
July 19, 2025 4:10 pm EDT
The Line: NY Mets -181 / Cincinnati Reds 148; Over/Under: 9
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 19, at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds (51-47, 23-25 Away) ended the first half of the season with four wins in five games, as they split a series with the Miami Marlins and beat the Colorado Rockies. The Reds opened the current series against the Mets with an 8-4 victory on Friday. Austin Hays led the offense with a couple of home runs and three RBI, while Nick Lodolo got the win after allowing two runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and one walk across 7.0 innings of work.
This year, the Reds average 4.58 runs per game (10th in the MLB) on a .246/.318/.400 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Reds’ staff has a 3.89 ERA (17th) and 1.23 WHIP (10th). Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with a .283 batting average, 18 home runs, and 64 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Reds is Nick Martinez, who is 7-9 in 19 starts this season, with a 4.78 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 111.0 innings.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets (55-43, 33-15 Home) won three of their last four series. After losing to the Baltimore Orioles, the Yankees responded with a series victory against the Kansas City Royals. The Mets lost Game 1 of this series to the Reds, 8-4. Sean Manaea pitched for 4.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing one run on one hit with six strikeouts and two walks, while Alejandro Carrillo took the loss.
This season, the Mets average 4.39 runs per game (14th in the MLB) on a .243/.322/.414 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Mets’ staff has a 3.60 ERA (4th) and 1.30 WHIP (20th). Pete Alonso leads the Mets with a .277 batting average, 21 home runs, and 77 RBI this season.
Clay Holmes will take the mound for the Mets on Saturday. The 32-year-old left-hander has an 8-4 record in 19 starts this year with a 3.31 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 103.1 innings.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Reds’ last four day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Mets’ last seven games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four day games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Reds’ last seven games.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mets rank 27th in the league for walks allowed this season (355).
- The Mets rank 5th in the league for walks this season (336).
- The Reds rank 9th in the league for hits allowed this season (768).
- The Reds rank 10th in the league for runs scored this season (449).
Mets vs Reds Prediction
The teams have traded victories in the past couple of years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H encounters. I surely didn’t expect to see 12 runs in Game 1, and I am going with Over in this one, not because of that outcome, but because of Nick Martinez and Clay Holmes. Martinez failed to impress in June, posting a 5.52 ERA, and he is playing even worse in July, allowing 16 runs in three starts. Holmes, on the other hand, had a strong month in June but is not playing very well in July, surrendering multiple runs in each of his three starts. I am backing both offenses to score 3+ in the opening five innings. Go with Over.
