Mets vs Yankees Prediction 7/5/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 5, at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees (48-40, 22-23 Away) defeated the Athletics in two of three games to win the series, but then they were swept by the Toronto Blue Jays in four games on the road. The Yankees opened the current series against the city rivals Mets, with a 6-5 loss. Jasson Dominguez led the offense with two homers and three RBI, while Marcus Stroman pitched for 5.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing three runs on seven hits with four strikeouts and one walk. Luke Weaver took the loss.

This year, the Yankees average 5.11 runs per game (4th in the MLB) on a .254/.338/.450 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Yankees’ staff has a 3.75 ERA (10th) and 1.21 WHIP (6th). Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with a .364 batting average, 32 home runs, and 71 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Yankees is Carlos Rodon, who is 9-5 in 18 starts this season, with a 2.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 106.2 innings.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets (51-38, 32-13 Home) were shockingly swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates in three games, but responded with a series win over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Mets snatched a 6-5 victory in Game 1 of the series against the Yankees. Juan Soto and Jeff McNeil led the offense with two RBI apiece, while Justin Hagenman pitched for 4.1 innings in a no-decision, allowing four runs on five hits with five strikeouts and no walks. Huascar Brazoban was credited with the win.

This season, the Mets average 4.34 runs per game (16th in the MLB) on a .244/.323/.416 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Mets’ staff has a 3.49 ERA (4th) and 1.30 WHIP (19th). Pete Alonso leads the Mets with a .287 batting average, 18 home runs, and 68 RBI this season.

Frankie Montas will take the mound for the Mets on Saturday. The 32-year-old right-hander has a 0-1 record in two starts this year with a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 9.0 innings.

Why the Yankees will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 day games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in six of their last seven day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last six home games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Yankees’ last six games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Mets’ last 10 games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last five day games against National League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.49).
• The Mets rank T6th in the league for walks this season (304).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.223).
• The Yankees rank T1st in the league for hits allowed this season (646).

Mets vs Yankees Prediction

The Mets won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, while this season, the series is currently tied at 2-2. I am going with the Yankees in this one because I prefer Carlos Rodon over Frankie Montas. Rodon already faced the Mets this year and allowed one run in 5.0 innings in a win. Montas, on the other hand, had only two starts since returning from an injury. He was dismantled in his latest start against the Pirates, allowing six runs in 4.0 innings. I am backing the Yanks to get to him early on and secure the win.