Miami Marlins vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 5/6/26 MLB Picks Today

The Baltimore Orioles and the Miami Marlins meet Wednesday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Baltimore Orioles will send out Brandon Young for the start here and Young is 2-1 with a 4.30 ERA and 9 strikeouts this season. This will be Young’s second career start against the Marlins. Miami will send out Eury Perez for the start here and Perez is 2-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 39 strikeouts this season. This will be Perez’s second career start against the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Recap

The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to add on to their 9-7 win over Miami last time out to sit at 16-20 this season. After this series, the Orioles will head home for a series against the Athletics.

Orioles Snap Five-Game Slide

Taylor Ward has 37 hits with 13 doubles and 12 RBIs while Gunnar Henderson has 31 hits with 6 doubles, 9 home runs and 19 RBIs and Pete Alonso has 30 hits with 10 doubles, 6 home runs and 17 RBIs. Adley Rutschman has 23 hits with 6 doubles, 4 home runs and 18 RBIs. Jeremiah Jackson has 29 hits with 3 doubles, 6 home runs and 24 RBIs while Dylan Beavers also has 19 hits with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 10 RBIs.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to shake off their loss at the hands of the Orioles on Tuesday to fall to 16-20 this season. After this series, the Marlins will host the Nationals in a series at home.

Marlins Lose 3 In A Row

Xavier Edwards has 44 hits with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 11 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 47 hits with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers and 16 RBIs. Agustin Ramirez has 26 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 34 hits with 3 doubles, 8 home runs and 32 RBIs. Connor Norby has 25 hits with 7 doubles, 3 home runs and 11 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 19 hits with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 15 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 24 hits with 2 triples, a home run and 8 RBIs this season.

Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: May 6, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez      Record this season: 2-3      ERA: 4.46
• Home Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Orioles: 1-0

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Orioles have lost six of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
• The home team has won four of the Orioles’ last five games.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Wednesday night road games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last six Wednesday games as home favorites.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last nine Wednesday night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Young      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 4.30
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Marlins: 0-1

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have lost 25 of their last 27 night games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last 12 games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against American League opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in four of their last five games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last six games as favorites against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Ten of the Orioles’ last 11 games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last five night games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last five games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez ranks T1st in the league in Hits (47) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Taylor Ward has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Taylor Ward ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.429) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (39).
• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Orioles rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.273).
• The Orioles rank 29th in the league for hits allowed this season (341).

Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

I’m on the Marlins here. I just think that Eury Perez is the better starting option here and he’s been far better at home this season compared to his numbers on the road. One win isn’t going to convince me that the Orioles are fixed all of a sudden and I think Miami gets the bounce back W here. Give me the Marlins.