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Miami Marlins vs NY Mets Prediction 5-19-24 Picks

NY Mets (20-25) vs. Miami Marlins (15-32)
May 19, 2024 1:40 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Marlins +125 / NY Mets -145; Over/Under: +7.5
(Get latest betting odds)

In this article we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs NY Mets prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 19th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series. 

Marlins Going for Five Straight

The Miami Marlins are 15-32 this year and they have won four games in a row. Miami has won the first two games in this series by scores of 8-0 and 10-9. Prior to this series, the Marlins won two out of three against Detroit, lost two out of three against Philadelphia, and were swept by the Dodgers. Miami has won five of their last six games, but they are still last in the NL East behind the Phillies, Braves, Nationals, and Mets.

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.95 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a .257 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 181 runs with a .230 batting average and a .286 on base percentage. Jazz Chisholm is batting .260 with six home runs and 24 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami is 29th in team ERA this season, but they have thrown three shutouts in their last four games. 

Mets Continue to Struggle

The New York Mets are 20-25 this season and they have lost seven of their last nine games. New York was shutout in game one, but they did have a 9-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth on Saturday, before they blew the game. Prior to this series, the Mets lost three out of four against the Phillies, lost two out of three against the Braves, and won both games against the Cardinals. New York has won back to back games just once in their last 25 games and they are fourth in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a .229 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 192 runs with a .235 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .230 with 10 home runs and 23 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has allowed at least four runs in nine of their last ten games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sixto Sanchez, who is 0-1 with a 5.96 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP over 22.2 innings pitched this season. Sanchez has allowed 10 earned runs and 22 hits over his last four starts (15.1 IP). Sanchez did throw 4.2 innings with no earned runs against the Tigers in his last start. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 41.1 innings pitched this year. Manaea has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did allow three earned runs and six hits against St. Louis two starts ago. 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

The underdogs have won each of the last six games between the Mets and Marlins.
The Mets have lost each of their last four games as road favorites after going to extra innings.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 games as favorites after going to extra innings.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last nine games between the Mets and Marlins.
The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Why the New York Mets will win

The Mets have won 13 of their last 14 games against the Marlins following a loss.
The Marlins have lost eight of their last nine games against the Mets following a home win.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 day games against teams that held a losing record.
The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Marlins following a road loss.
The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last six day games against the Marlins at LoanDepot Park.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Marlins’ last nine home games following an extra innings win have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the Mets’ last seven road games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last three day games.

Miami Marlins vs NY Mets Prediction 

Miami comes into this game with a ton of momentum after a huge ninth inning rally on Saturday, and they are looking for their fifth win in a row. The Marlins are 8-17 at home, but they have looked like a different team over the last week. New York is 10-11 on the road this year, but they have really struggled over the last four weeks. The Mets should have the pitching advantage with Manaea on the mound, but the Marlins are all of a sudden scoring a bunch of runs. I think we see a higher scoring game and my Miami Marlins vs NY Mets prediction is for this game to go over the total. 

David Racey's Free Pick: Over 7.5

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David Racey

David started writing about sports in 2015, but sports has been his passion for as long as he can remember. David spends most of his free time watching pretty much anything sports related from Baseball to Tennis and everything in between. David likes to analyze statistics and recent results to form an unbiased opinion on whatever game he is breaking down. Follow David on Twitter at @itsyerboi41

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