Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions 6/29/2021

The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies meet in an NL East division matchup from Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday.

The Miami Marlins will look to bounce back from a 5-1 loss at the hands of the Nationals on Sunday. Jesus Aguilar had a double and the lone RBI for Miami in the loss while Jazz Chisholm Jr. had a triple and Jon Berti added a pair of base hits. Jorge Alfaro and Garrett Cooper each had a base hit as well to finish off Miami’s offense as the Marlins had just six hits as a team in the losing effort. Sandy Alcantara took the loss, falling to 4-7 on the year after allowing four earned runs on six hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings of work. Trevor Rogers will start here and is 7-4 with a 2.08 ERA and 101 strikeouts this season. In his career, Rogers is 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA and 18 strikeouts against Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to rebound from their 12-4 loss at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds on Monday. Alec Bohm and Ronald Torreyes each had two RBIs with Bohm going 2 for 3 with a double. Odubel Herrera went 2 for 5 with a double while Andrew Knapp added a double of his own and Bryce Harper and Luke Williams each had a base hit to cap off Philadelphia’s offense as a team in defeat. Spencer Howard allowed two runs on four hits over 2.1 innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Neftali Feliz ended up with the loss in relief to fall to 0-1 on the year. Vince Velasquez will start here and is 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 64 strikeouts this season. In his career Velasquez is 5-4 with a 4.54 ERA and 85 strikeouts against Miami.

Miami is 2-5 in their last 7 games overall and 4-11 in their last 15 series-opening games while the under is 6-2 in their last 8 road games. Philadelphia is 2-9 in their last 11 series-opening games and 2-5 in their last 7 games overall while the under is 6-2 in their last 8 division games. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

I get the case that could be made for either side in this one, with Miami having the rest advantage, but also being unable to string together consistent offense while Philadelphia’s playing the better baseball, but I don’t trust Vince Velasquez as far as I can throw him. Instead, I’m going to lean towards the under as I think Trevor Rogers stifles a tired Phillies team that had to travel while the Marlins continue to struggle at the dish.