Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction 7/25/26 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and the Miami Marlins meet Saturday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out JP Sears for the start here and Sears is 2-3 with a 4.38 ERA and 20 strikeouts this season. Eury Perez will start for Miami here and is 5-7 with a 3.53 ERA and 104 strikeouts this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their 4-2 win over the Marlins from Friday to improve to 51-53 this season. After this series, the Padres will head home for a series against the Colorado Rockies.

Padres Snap Two-Game Slide

Jackson Merrill has 87 hits with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 45 RBIs while Ramon Laureano has 37 hits with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 7 home runs and 21 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 114 hits with 20 doubles and 47 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 75 hits with 9 doubles, 9 home runs and 38 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 77 hits with 16 doubles, 22 home runs and 60 RBIs as well on the year.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to shake off their loss at the hands of the Padres on Friday to sit at 52-52 this season. After this series, the Marlins will take on the Phillies in a division series at home.

Marlins’ Losing Skid Hits Double Digits

Xavier Edwards has 111 hits with 14 doubles, 6 triples, 6 home runs and 37 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 132 hits with 27 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers and 46 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 91 hits with 9 doubles, 14 home runs and 60 RBIs. Connor Norby has 41 hits with 12 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 52 hits with 12 doubles, 12 homers and 50 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 66 hits with 11 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs and 25 RBIs this season. Kyle Stowers has also chipped in 68 hits with 17 doubles, 3 triples, 12 home runs and 43 RBIs.

San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: July 25, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez      Record this season: 5-7      ERA: 3.53
• Home Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Padres: 0-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last eight day games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have won 11 of their last 12 home games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games against the Marlins following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last six home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against NL East opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at LoanDepot Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: JP Sears      Record this season: 2-3      ERA: 4.38
• Road Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Marlins: 1-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last 10 games.
• The Padres have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Marlins.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Padres’ last 12 games.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 15 games as favorites against NL West opponents following a home loss.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four home games.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Thirteen of the Marlins’ last 15 home games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Padres’ last seven games as underdogs against the Marlins have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last six games as home favorites.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Padres’ last six Saturday games against National League opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Heriberto Hernandez has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last five games as home favorites.
• Eury Perez has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Marlins as favorites against NL opponents.
• Eury Perez has recorded six or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Marlins as favorites.
• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 11 home games.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (132) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Ty France has hit at least one home run in each of the Padres’ last two day games.
• JP Sears has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances in day games.
• Luis Rengifo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents.
• JP Sears has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in day games.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T5th in the league in Steals (25) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (24).
• The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (24).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (784).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (784).

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

I’m on the Marlins in this one. I keep saying the losing skid can’t last forever and I think this is a good spot for it to end. JP Sears has been inconsistent for the Padres and the Marlins are still an improved team against lefties in 2026 compared to what we’ve seen in past seasons. Perez has been great in July and has been better at home this season and I think Miami gets it done here. Give me the Marlins.