Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 6-4-24 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, June 4th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series. 

Rays Searching for Consistent Play 

The Tampa Bay Rays are 29-31 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series loss against Baltimore, where they lost two out of three games and were out scored 15-10 in the three games. Prior to that series, the Rays won two out of three against the Athletics, lost two out of three against the Royals, and were swept by the Red Sox. Tampa Bay is just 4-9 in their last 13 games and they are towards the bottom of the AL East, 12.5 games behind the Yankees.

The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 4.33 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 234 runs with a .234 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. Isaac Paredes is batting .291 with 10 home runs and 32 RBI’s for the Rays this season. Tampa Bay is just 24th in team ERA and they have allowed at least five runs in eight of their last 13 games. 

Marlins Trying To Avoid Three Straight Shutouts 

The Miami Marlins are 21-39 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. Miami is coming off of a series loss against Texas, where they lost two out of three games and were outscored 13-0 in games two and three of the series. Prior to that series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Padres, won two out of three against the Diamondbacks, and won two out of three against the Brewers. Miami is 6-7 in their last 13 games and they are last in the NL East. 

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.56 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 219 runs with a .236 batting average and a .290 on base percentage. Bryan De La Cruz is batting .249 with nine home runs and 25 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami is 29th in the MLB in runs scored this year and they have scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last ten games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Jesus Luzardo, who is 2-4 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 51.2 innings pitched this season. Luzardo has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts and has allowed just three earned runs over his last three starts (20.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who is 3-2 with a 3.88 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 46.1 innings pitched this year. Pepiot has also allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts and has not allowed more than three hits in any of those outings. 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

The Rays have lost each of their last three games as road favorites.
The Marlins have won six of their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last four night games against teams that held a losing record.
The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last six games as road favorites.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Marlins’ last four games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Five of the Rays’ last six games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last eight night games against American League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last three night games.

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup struggling over the last two weeks and could really use a series win here. Tampa Bay is 12-13 on the road and they just haven’t been able to pitch as well as we are used to seeing. Miami is 11-21 at home this year and they have one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Rays are starting Pepiot, who has solid numbers on the season, but the Rays are just 5-4 in his starts. The Marlins are going with Luzardo, who has been dominant over the last couple of weeks. I don’t love either of these teams, but I think taking Luzardo at this price is a solid option. My Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction is for the Marlins to get the win.