Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 6/5/26 MLB Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Miami Marlins meet Sunday in MLB action from Tropicana Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Drew Rasmussen for the start here and Rasmussen is 4-2 with a 3.36 ERA and 55 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Miami, Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 21 strikeouts. Ryan Gusto will start for Miami and is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and 4 strikeouts this season. This will be Gusto’s second career start against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to bounce back from a 7-2 loss at the hands of the Detroit Tigers last time out to sit at 36-23 this season. After this series, the Rays will head home for a series against the Boston Red Sox.

Rays Drop 8 Of Last 10

Yandy Diaz has 67 hits with 10 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 39 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 64 hits with 4 triples and 12 RBIs. Nick Fortes has 35 hits with 7 doubles, a home run and 13 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 58 hits with 9 doubles, 11 homers and 43 RBIs. Junior Caminero’s also added 62 hits with 8 doubles, 14 home runs and 30 RBIs.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to add on to their 4-1 win over the Washington Nationals last time out to sit at 29-34 this season. After this series, the Marlins will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in a series at home.

Marlins Win 3 In A Row

Xavier Edwards has 73 hits with 11 doubles, 4 triples, 6 home runs and 20 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 81 hits with 15 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homers and 25 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 53 hits with 5 doubles, 12 home runs and 46 RBIs. Connor Norby has 36 hits with 10 doubles, 4 home runs and 15 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 34 hits with 9 doubles, 5 homers and 30 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 43 hits with 7 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs and 16 RBIs this season.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: June 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryan Gusto      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 9.00
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-0

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Rays have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won each of the Rays’ last three games.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as road favorites.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 3.36
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Marlins: 3-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last 10 games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against NL East opponents.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last nine night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays’ last four games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last eight games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 14 of the Marlins’ last 16 games as home underdogs.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (82) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games against the Marlins.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in each of his last three road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Yandy Diaz ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.313) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (71).
• The Marlins rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (13).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (427).
• The Rays rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (449).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

I’m on the over here. I just think this has the makings of a higher-scoring game as these two teams have been heading in different directions but I think the Marlins can get to Rasmussen who has been hittable and a Rays bullpen that’s been subpar in recent weeks. On the other side, Ryan Gusto hasn’t seen much action and he had an ERA just under six in a decent sample size last year and the Marlins bullpen hasn’t been anything special either. Give me the over.