Nationals vs Phillies Prediction 3/27/25 MLB Picks Today

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Washington Nationals meet on Thursday in MLB action from Nationals Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send out Zack Wheeler for the start here, and Wheeler was 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA and 224 strikeouts last season. In his career, Wheeler is 14-15 with a 4.45 ERA and 187 strikeouts against the Nationals. MacKenzie Gore will get the nod for the Nationals here and was 10-12 with a 3.90 ERA and 181 strikeouts last season. In his career, Gore is 1-4 with a 4.96 ERA and 46 strikeouts against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into the 2025 season hoping to improve on what was a decent campaign in 2024, finishing the year with an overall record of 95-67 and their first NL East division title since 2011. The Phillies would go the NLDS, where they would lose to the Mets in the best-of-5 set 3 games to 1. The Phillies are running it back with a large chunk of one of the best lineups in baseball, led by the likes of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Alec Bohm, while also adding Max Kepler in free agency to bolster the outfield. The starting rotation is intact for the most part as well, with Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez all back to flank Wheeler in addition to the acquisition of Jesus Luzardo. All in all, the pieces are there for the Phils to repeat in the NL East and maybe make another run at a World Series crown in 2025.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last eight Thursday games against the Nationals.
• The Nationals have lost 26 of their last 28 Thursday games against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home openers.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in three of their last four road openers against National League opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Max Kepler has hit a home run in four of his last seven appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances in season openers.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite in season openers.
• Max Kepler has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against NL East opponents.
• Max Kepler has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in season openers.

Washington Nationals Recap

The Washington Nationals come into the 2024 season fresh off of a second consecutive 71-91 season, finishing the year on the outside looking in and missing the playoffs for the fifth straight season. This is going to be an interesting year for the Nats, as they still have a young core featuring potential diamonds like James Wood and Dylan Crews alongside stolen base guru CJ Abrams along with a solid rotation led by Gore, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams and Mitchell Parker in addition to the offseason acquisition of Mike Soroka and the impending return of Josiah Gray mid-season. Shinnosuke Ogasawara has all sorts of potential, and it’ll be interesting to see the direction this year’s Nationals team takes. The Nats will play against the Blue Jays after this series.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as road favorites.
• The Nationals have won three of their last four games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in 10 of their last 13 day games against NL East opponents.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Nathaniel Lowe has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Luis Garcia has scored a run in each of the Nationals’ last four games.
• Josh Bell has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances in season openers.
• MacKenzie Gore has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Nationals as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals’ last five games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

I’m on the over in this game. I know that Wheeler is still viewed as an ace, and for good reason, but he still has had some issues in his career against Washington, and even if he has a solid outing here, I’m not overly sold on this Phillies bullpen once again. The Nationals are a work in progress, and I’m not the president of the MacKenzie Gore fan club. Gore’s been prone to giving up home runs over the course of his career, and I think this total is just far too low here. Give me the over.