New Mexico State vs New Mexico Prediction 9/27/25 College Football Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a New Mexico State vs New Mexico Prediction for this College Football Week 5 game on Saturday, September 27^th at the University Stadium (NM). Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

New Mexico Preview

New Mexico has a 2-1 record this season and are sitting on the 5th place of the Mountain West. They are 2-1 ATS, 1-2 in Over/Under and have a 1-0 home record and 1-1 away record. The Lobos are coming off a 35-10 away victory over UCLA and are playing New Mexico State, San Jose State and Boise State next.

Offensively, the Lobos average 28.0 points per game, which ranks 79th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 22.0 points per game, which is 64th. New Mexico averages 362.7 total yards per game, with 188.0 rushing yards and 174.7 passing yards per game. They allow 388.0 total yards per game, with 143.7 rushing and 244.3 passing yards per game.

Jack Layne leads the Lobos with 515 passing yards and 66.7% completed passes. Scottre Humphrey leads the team in rushing yards, with 222, while Dorian Thomas has a team-high 18 caught passes for 168 receiving yards, and has two touchdowns.

Defensively, Jaxton Eck has a team-high 34 total tackles, 19 of them solo. Brett Karhu leads the Lobos in sacks, with one, while Tavian Combs has one interception.

New Mexico State Preview

New Mexico State has a 2-1 record this season and are sitting on the 9th place of Conference USA. They are 1-2 ATS, 1-2 in Over/Under and have a 2-0 home record and 0-1 away record. The Aggies are coming off a 14-49 away loss to Louisiana Tech and are playing New Mexico, Sam Houston and Liberty next.

Offensively, the Aggies average 18.0 points per game, which ranks 123rd in the nation. Defensively, they allow 22.0 points per game, which is 65th. New Mexico State averages 301.7 total yards per game, with 47.7 rushing yards and 254.0 passing yards per game. They allow 401.3 total yards per game, with 187.3 rushing and 214.0 passing yards per game.

Logan Fife leads the Aggies with 762 passing yards and 54.1% completed passes. Dijon Stanley leads the team in rushing yards, with 58, while PJ Johnson III has a team-high 13 caught passes for 211 receiving yards, and has two touchdowns.

Defensively, Tyler Martinez has a team-high 24 total tackles, 13 of them solo. Jamall Thompson Jr. leads the Aggies in sacks, with two, while Tyler Martinez has one interception.

New Mexico State Aggies @ New Mexico Lobos Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the New Mexico Lobos will win

• New Mexico State has lost 12 of its last 13 road games in September.
• New Mexico has won nine of its last 11 home games against non-conference opponents.
• New Mexico has covered the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games in September.
• New Mexico has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against opponents from the Conference USA.
• New Mexico has won the first half in four of its last five games against opponents from the Conference USA.

Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win

• The underdog has won five of New Mexico’s last seven games.
• New Mexico has lost three of its last four games against teams from New Mexico.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of New Mexico’s last seven games.
• New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six home games against teams from New Mexico.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of New Mexico State’s last eight games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of New Mexico’s last seven games against opponents from the Conference USA have gone UNDER the total points line.

New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Jaxton Eck leads the Mountain West Conference for forced fumbles (1) this season.

New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Naeten Mitchell leads the Conference USA for forced fumbles (1) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico ranks T9th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (12.0).
• New Mexico ranks T128th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (66.7).
• New Mexico State ranks 136th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (48.0).
• New Mexico State ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).

New Mexico State vs New Mexico Prediction

In their previous meeting last season, New Mexico won 50-40 on the road, and are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against New Mexico State. Both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their last four meetings in New Mexico, and over is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings.

In this New Mexico State vs New Mexico Prediction, New Mexico is coming as -14-point home favorites, with the total set at 54.5 points. This is a very large total for two teams that are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games combined. The Lobos have 50 average total points this season, and the Aggies 40 points per game, so I will go under the 54.5-point total in this one.