NY Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 9-4-24 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a NY Mets vs Boston Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 4th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.

NY Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 75-64 this year and they have won six games in a row. New York has won the first two games in this series by scores of 4-1 and 7-2. Prior to this series, the Mets swept the White Sox, won two out of three against the Diamondbacks, and split four games with the Padres. New York is 8-2 in their last 10 games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .232 opponent batting average. The Mets’ offense has scored 662 runs with a .249 batting average and a .320 on-base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .242 with 31 home runs and 78 RBI’s for the Mets this season.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 70-69 this season and they have lost four games in a row. Boston has lost the first two games in this series and they have been outscored 11-3. Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Tigers, split four games with the Blue Jays, and lost all three against the Diamondbacks. Boston is 3-9 in their last 12 games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 661 runs with a .255 batting average and a .321 on-base percentage. Jarren Duran is batting .293 with 21 home runs and 71 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Tylor Megill, who is 3-5 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 52.1 innings pitched this year. Megill has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Tanner Houck, who is 8-9 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 164.2 innings pitched this season. Houck has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Mets

• The favorites have won each of the last seven games between the Red Sox and Mets.
• The Mets have lost three of their last four games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Mets’ last five games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Mets’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last five games at Citi Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four games as underdogs.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Double in three of the Mets’ last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Tylor Megill has recorded a win in three of his four previous home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
• Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last seven games against AL opponents.
• Tylor Megill has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in night games.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances against the Red Sox.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 14 games.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his eight previous home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• J.D. Martinez has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Jarren Duran has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last three games as road favorites.
• Rafael Devers has recorded two RBIs in each of the Red Sox’s last four games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Tyler O’Neill has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances against NL East opponents.
• Jarren Duran has scored at least one run in each of the Red Sox’s last six games as road favorites.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 21 road games against NL opponents.
• Danny Jansen has recorded at least one Double in each of his last four appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.
• Danny Jansen has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite against NL East opponents.

NY Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup looking for their third straight win in the series and they are right behind Atlanta in the NL Wild Card race. The Mets are 37-33 at home, while the Red Sox are 39-31 on the road this season. Boston has really struggled in their last six games and they are 4.5 games out of a wild card spot, but they are starting Tanner Houck, who has been pretty good recently. The Mets are going with Megill, who pitched well against the White Sox last time out, but I don’t really trust him at all. Take the Red Sox here.