NY Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 8-16-24 MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a NY Mets vs Miami Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Friday, August 16th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 62-59 this year and they have lost five of their last six games. New York is coming off of a series loss against Oakland, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Mets lost all three against the Mariners, won two out of three against the Rockies, and won a makeup game against the Cardinals. New York is 4-8 in their last 12 games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 580 runs with a .249 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .245 with 26 home runs and 68 RBI’s for the Mets this season. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 45-76 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. Miami is coming off of a series split against Philadelphia, where they won one game and lost one game. Prior to that series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Padres, lost three out of four against the Reds, and split four games against the Braves. Miami is 5-8 in their last 13 games and they are last in the NL East. 

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.59 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .256 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 450 runs with a .238 batting average and a .294 on base percentage. Jake Burger is batting .253 with 23 home runs and 54 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who is 8-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 123.0 innings pitched this season. Manaea has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Roddery Munoz, who is 2-6 with a 5.67 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 74.2 innings pitched this year. Munoz has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins

• The Mets have won each of their last 10 home games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost 13 of their last 15 night games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games following a home loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games following a road loss.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last four games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last nine games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five night games against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Jeff McNeil has hit at least one home run in each of the Mets’ last two night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded a Double in four of the Mets’ last five home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Mets’ last five games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Iglesias has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last six night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Sean Manaea has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last nine games.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Mets as home favorites.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 16 games against opponents that held a losing record.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jake Burger has hit a home run in each of his last four appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one RBI in 10 of the Marlins’ last 11 games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one Single in five of his last six road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Jake Burger has scored at least one run in eight of the Marlins’ last nine night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Marlins’ last 10 night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 14 night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

NY Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 

New York comes into this series after a very disappointing three game set against Oakland and they are trying to get back on track here. The Mets are just 31-31 at home, while the Marlins are 21-37 on the road. Miami has been one of the worst teams in baseball this year, but they have been very scrappy over the last two series. New York has played poorly over their last six games, but they do have a big pitching advantage here, as Manaea has been very good over the last two months, despite a bad performance last time out. This is a tough spot because New York is struggling and Miami has been awful on the road, but I will side with the better team. My NY Mets vs Miami Marlins prediction is for the Mets to win by at least two runs.