NY Mets vs NY Yankees Prediction 5/17/26 MLB Picks Today

The New York Yankees and the New York Mets meet Sunday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Yankees vs. New York Mets prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send out Elmer Rodriguez for the start here and Rodriguez is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 5 strikeouts this season. This will be Rodriguez’s first career start against the Mets. Freddy Peralta will start this one for the Mets and is 3-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 50 strikeouts this season. This will be Peralta’s second career start against the Yankees.

New York Yankees Recap

The New York Yankees come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-3 loss at the hands of the Mets on Saturday to sit at 28-18 this season. After this series, the Yankees will head home for a series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Yankees Alternate Wins & Losses In 5 Straight

Giancarlo Stanton has 23 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 14 RBIs while Ben Rice has 43 hits with 9 doubles, 14 home runs and 30 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 45 hits with 8 doubles, 16 home runs and 30 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 43 hits with 11 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs and 30 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 36 hits with 9 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs as well on the year.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to build on their win over the Yankees from Saturday to improve to 19-26 this season. After this series, the Mets will head on the road for a series against the Nationals.

Mets Win 4 Of Last 5

Luis Robert Jr. has 19 hits including 2 home runs and 8 RBIs while Juan Soto has 31 hits with 4 doubles, 6 home runs and 14 RBIs. Brett Baty has 30 hits with 7 doubles, a triple, 2 home runs and 17 RBIs while Francisco Lindor has 21 hits with 2 doubles and a pair of triples as well. Marcus Semien also has 36 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 14 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 38 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 18 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 27 hits with 5 doubles and 4 home runs this season.

New York Yankees @ New York Mets Betting Trends: May 17, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta      Record this season: 3-3      ERA: 3.10
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Yankees: 0-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight road games after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have won each of their last seven games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Yankees have trailed after 3 innings in nine of their last 12 games at Citi Field.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Elmer Rodriguez      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 5.19
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Mets: –

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won eight of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have lost seven of their last eight Sunday games as home favorites.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in each of their last four day games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Yankees’ last 10 road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mets’ last eight home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Freddy Peralta’s last four home appearances as a starter.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against AL East opponents.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against former teams.
• Jorge Polanco has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Yankees.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Aaron Judge has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Aaron Judge has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Ben Rice ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.667) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.347).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.292).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (67).
• The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (207).

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Prediction

I’m on the under here. I still don’t trust this Mets offense to be consistently putting up numbers and I think this is a good spot for Elmer Rodriguez to potentially have his best start yet, while the Yankees have been hit or miss almost the entire month of May, and could easily struggle here as well against Freddy Peralta, who has been solid and is the healthiest ace level pitcher the Mets have left. I think this ends up being low-scoring, so give me the under here.