NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9-19-24 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 19th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

NY Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 84-68 this season and they have won three games in a row. New York is coming off of a series win against Washington, where they won all three games and scored 10 runs in games two and three. Prior to that series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Phillies, won two out of three against the Blue Jays, and won two out of three against the Reds. New York is 6-3 in their last nine games and they are second in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .229 opponent batting average. The Mets’ offense has scored 730 runs with a .248 batting average and a .320 on-base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .246 with 33 home runs and 86 RBI’s for the Mets this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 91-61 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series loss against Milwaukee, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Mets, swept the Rays, and split four games with the Marlins. Philadelphia is 6-3 in their last nine games and they are first in the NL East. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 733 runs with a .258 batting average and a .326 on-base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .288 with 29 home runs and 84 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Luis Severino, who is 10-6 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 172.0 innings pitched this season. Severino has allowed one earned run in two of his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Taijuan Walker, who is 3-6 with a 6.29 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP over 78.2 innings pitched this year. Walker has allowed four earned runs over his last three relief appearances (8.0 IP). 

Why the Mets will beat the Phillies

• The Mets have won each of their last 10 night games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have lost eight of their last nine games at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against the Phillies at Citi Field.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Phillies will beat the Mets

• The Phillies have won each of their last five night games following a loss.
• The Mets have lost four of their last five games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against the Phillies following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Mets’ last eight night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last five home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five road games against NL East opponents.

NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series playing very well, but the Mets have so much more to play for here. New York is battling for a wild card spot in the NL, while the Phillies are cruising to an NL East title. The Mets are 43-34 at home this year, while the Phillies are 39-35 on the road.

Philadelphia hasn’t played great on the road this season and they are starting Walker, who has some very ugly numbers this season. New York is going with Severino, who has been pretty good but has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last nine outings. I think we are going to see plenty of runs in this game, so take the over here.