NY Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 7/4/26 MLB Picks Today

The Minnesota Twins and the New York Yankees meet Saturday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Minnesota Twins will send out Zebby Matthews for the start here and Matthews is 4-5 with a 4.15 ERA and 46 strikeouts this season. Brendan Beck will start for the Yankees and is 0-0 with a 6.00 ERA and 1 strikeout this season.

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to shake off a 5-2 loss at the hands of the Yankees on Friday to sit at 42-47 this season. After this series, the Twins will head home for a set against the Cleveland Guardians.

Twins Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Byron Buxton has 81 hits with 15 doubles, a triple, 25 home runs and 43 RBIs while Josh Bell’s added 75 hits with 17 doubles, 11 home runs and 56 RBIs. Luke Keaschall has 71 hits with 13 doubles, 3 homers and 25 RBIs. Brooks Lee has 14 home runs with 47 RBIs and Victor Caratini has 34 RBIs while Kody Clemens has 66 hits with 17 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs and 39 RBIs this season.

New York Yankees Recap

The New York Yankees will be out to add on to their win over the Twins from Friday to sit at 49-38 this season. After this series, the Yankees will head on the road for a series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Yankees Snap Seven-Game Slide

Ben Rice has 82 hits with 15 doubles, 24 home runs and 56 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 53 hits with 10 doubles, 17 home runs and 38 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 78 hits with 16 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs and 49 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 65 hits with 11 doubles, 12 home runs and 33 RBIs as well on the year.

Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees Betting Trends: July 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brendan Beck      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 6.00
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Twins: –

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last 11 day games against AL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Twins have lost eight of their last nine games at Yankee Stadium.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last eight Saturday day home games against AL Central opponents.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games at Yankee Stadium.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last 10 games at Yankee Stadium.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games at Yankee Stadium.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zebby Matthews      Record this season: 4-5      ERA: 4.15
• Road Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Yankees: 0-2

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Twins have won each of their last four games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Twins’ last eight games.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against AL East opponents.
• The Twins have won the first inning in each of their last four day games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Yankees’ last six games as favorites against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Twins’ last three day games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Twins’ last six games against AL East opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the last six games between the Twins and Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Anthony Volpe has recorded at least one hit in each of his 17 previous appearances against the Twins.
• Amed Rosario has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances with the Yankees as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Jazz Chisholm ranks 3rd in the league in Steals (26) this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Kody Clemens has hit a home run in three of the Twins’ last four games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Zebby Matthews has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Royce Lewis has recorded at least one hit in each of the Twins’ last 10 games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Zebby Matthews has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents.
• Byron Buxton ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.573) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (126).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.34).
• The Twins rank 28th in the league for runs allowed this season (460).
• The Twins rank 27th in the league for ERA this season (4.83).

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Prediction

I’m on the Twins here. Zebby Matthews has been inconsistent at times, but the Yankees can’t hit right-handed pitching right now and I think Matthews has a decent start here. The Yankees look like they’re employing a bullpen game with the injury to Carlos Rodon and I think the Twins, who are smashing righties at the moment, get to them here and get the win in this one. Give me Minnesota.