NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 5/22/26 MLB Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees meet Friday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Nick Martinez for the start here and Martinez is 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA and 35 strikeouts this season. In his last five career starts against the Yankees, Martinez is 2-1 with a 4.94 ERA and 16 strikeouts. Gerrit Cole will start here for the Yankees and is making his first major league start since 2024. In his last five starts against the Rays, Cole is 3-0 with a 3.23 ERA and 37 strikeouts.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to build on a 5-3 win over the Orioles last time out to sit at 33-15 this season. After this series, the Rays will head on the road for a series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Rays Win 4 In A Row

Yandy Diaz has 55 hits with 7 doubles, a triple, 8 home runs and 33 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 53 hits with 4 triples and 12 RBIs. Nick Fortes has 31 hits with 5 doubles, a home run and 9 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 45 hits with 7 doubles, 8 homers and 37 RBIs. Junior Caminero’s also added 49 hits with 5 doubles, 13 home runs and 27 RBIs and Ben WIlliamson has 30 hits with 6 doubles and 14 RBIs.

New York Yankees Recap

The New York Yankees come into this game looking to bounce back from a 2-0 loss at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays last time out to sit at 30-21 this season. After this series, the Yankees will head on the road for a game against the Kansas City Royals.

Yankees Drop Back-To-Back Games

Giancarlo Stanton has 23 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 14 RBIs while Ben Rice has 47 hits with 10 doubles, 16 home runs and 33 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 46 hits with 8 doubles, 16 home runs and 30 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 48 hits with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs and 32 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 43 hits with 9 doubles, 5 home runs and 18 RBIs as well on the year.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees Betting Trends: May 22, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Gerrit Cole      Record this season: –      ERA: –
• Home Record: –
• Last 5 against Rays: 3-0

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last 10 Friday road games against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have won nine of their last 10 night games at Yankee Stadium following a loss.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Rays’ last four games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line each of their last four road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez      Record this season: 4-1      ERA: 1.51
• Road Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Yankees: 0-1

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last 14 games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Yankees have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Rays following a loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Yankees’ last six games.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four road games.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Friday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Friday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the last six games between the Rays and Yankees have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five night games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Rays and Yankees.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Rays’ last six night games.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Gerrit Cole has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Gerrit Cole has recorded five or more strikeouts in 23 of his 24 previous appearances against the Rays.
• Aaron Judge has recorded two or more hits in each of the Yankees’ last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Anthony Volpe has hit a home run in each of the Yankees’ last two games as home favorites against the Rays.
• Ben Rice ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.644) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Nick Martinez ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (1.51) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (73).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for walks this season (229).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (342).
• The Rays rank T2nd in the league for triples this season (10).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Prediction

I’m on the Rays in this one. I get the case to be made for the Yankees getting the name brand respect in this spot, with Gerrit Cole back in the fold as well. However, while the Rays have been stronger at home they’ve still been solid overall and I think this is just a situation where the value on Tampa Bay is too good to pass on here. Give me the Rays in this one.