Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction 4/11/25 MLB Picks Today

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles meet on Friday in MLB action from Oriole Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s an Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Orioles vs Blue Jays pick.

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Jays and Orioles met already this season in the first series of the year. Toronto managed wins in the second and fourth installments of that set, splitting the series 2-2. The Jays posted a sweep over the Washington Nationals in their second series of the season but weren’t so lucky against the Mets last weekend. Toronto was swept in three games: 3-2, 2-1, and 5-0 there. The good news is that the Jays beat the Boston Red Sox 6-2 on Monday and 6-1 on Tuesday. In game three, Toronto posted the winning run in the top of the 11th, gathering six hits on the way to a tense 2-1 victory to keep it rolling. Vladimir Guerrero posted three hits and a run in that one, while starter Kevin Gausman went 8.0 innings with no earned, four hits, and 10 Ks.

In the series finale versus the Sox on Thursday, the Blue Jays took a tough 4-3 loss in 10 innings. Starting pitcher Chris Bassitt lasted 5.2 innings with one earned run on five hits and a walk.

As the starting pitcher for game one on Friday, Toronto is going with Bowden Francis. This year, Francis is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA over two starts. Francis is 10-6 over his career in the MLB with a 2.90 ERA in 50 games (15 starts).

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

Over on the Orioles’ side, they took wins over the Jays 12-2 and 9-5 in their opening series of the season. Baltimore would bag a win in game one during their set versus the Boston Red Sox, but then fell in the next pair for a series loss. The O’s won last Saturday’s matchup against the Royals 8-1 but lost the other two in that set as well. Baltimore split the first two games of this week’s series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-1 (win) and 4-3 (loss). In the Tuesday defeat, the Orioles had just four hits—two were by Cedric Mullins, who finished on two RBI and a run. Starting pitcher Charlie Morton had a spotty outing with 5.0 innings and four earned runs on four hits and five walks alongside four Ks.

In the Wednesday rubber match versus Arizona, the Orioles gave up five runs in the fifth inning, gathering just four hits (while giving up 14 on the other side) in a 9-0 blowout loss. Starter Dean Kremer gave up six earned no eight hits and a walk with four Ks in 4.2 innings total.

In the starting pitcher role on Friday, the Orioles will go with Tomoyuki Sugano. In the first two starts of his MLB career this season, Sugano has gone 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA. He’s got five strikeouts over 9.1 total innings.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won each of their last eight night games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Blue Jays have lost eight of their last nine night games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards after going to extra innings.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last 13 games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards after going to extra innings.
• The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in four of their last five games against opponents that held a winning record at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Orioles have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Blue Jays have won six of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Orioles following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games after playing the previous day.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Orioles’ last seven night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine road games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last five games as favorites.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction

I might take a stab on the Orioles here, but coming off their respective series, you could certainly make a case for the Jays as well. Baltimore didn’t play very well on either side of the ball in their latest loss to Arizona on Wednesday, with the team notching only four hits and the pitching staff giving up nine earned runs. After Kremer’s six earned, the bullpen surrendered the other three in 3.1 innings on six hits, two walks, and four strikeouts. Sugano certainly has his work cut out for him. The good news is that he hasn’t done too badly in his pair of starts so far. Sugano has given up three earned over 9.1 innings total on nine hits and three walks.

It’s going to take a bit of a push—and some improvement on both sides—for the O’s to get one here, but the home environment will help.