Orioles vs Pirates Prediction 4/4/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate an Orioles vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, April 4^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 4-3 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL Central. They have a 1-0 home record and are coming off a 5-4 home win over the Orioles. Their previous three games were an 8-3 road win, an 8-3 road win and a 0-2 road loss to the Reds.

The Pirates have a .230 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .391 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Ryan O’Hearn is the team’s best hitter with a .381 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 7. Oneil Cruz adds a team-high 3 home runs.

Carmen Mlodzinski (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 0-0 record, 4.15 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 3-4 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the AL East. They have a 0-1 road record and are coming off a 4-5 road loss to the Pirates. Their previous three games were an 8-3 home win, an 5-8 and a 2-5 home loss to the Rangers.

The Orioles have a .257 batting average this season, .336 OBP and .391 Slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Taylor Ward is the team’s best hitter with a .333 batting average. Gunnar Henderson leads the team in RBI with 6, also adding a team-high two home runs.

Shane Baz (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, and he has a 0-0 record, 6.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

Baltimore Orioles @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: April 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 4.15
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Orioles: 0-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last 10 day games at PNC Park following a win.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games at PNC Park following a win.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games at PNC Park.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in each of their last three road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against American League opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games at PNC Park against American League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Baz      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 6.75
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-0

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Orioles have won seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line each of their last five home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in three of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Orioles’ last seven games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the last five games between the Orioles and Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Orioles’ last 10 road games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Orioles and Pirates at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 appearances in day games.
• Brandon Lowe ranks T3rd in the league in Home Runs (3) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Gunnar Henderson has hit a home run in each of the Orioles’ last two road games.
• Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank T29th in the league for steals this season (1).
• The Pirates rank T3rd in the league for home runs this season (10).
• The Orioles rank T5th in the league for doubles this season (13).
• The Orioles rank 7th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.336).

Orioles vs Pirates Prediction

The Orioles are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Pirates but the Pirates have won their last three meetings in Pittsburgh.

In this Orioles vs Pirates Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. The Pirates have now won three straight, having scored 21 total runs in that span, and Mlodzinski gave up just two runs in his first start of the season. On the flip side, Baz looked bad in his Orioles debut, giving up 4 runs and the Pirates have both a better bullpen and a slightly better offense. They have also won all three previous home meetings against the Orioles, so take them on the moneyline to win this one as well.