Orioles vs Pirates Prediction 9/11/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 11th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 68-77 this season after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 3-2 and 2-1. In their game two win, Baltimore trailed 1-0 in the fourth inning, but they scored once in the eighth and once in the 10th for the extra innings win. The Orioles recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Holliday and Beavers, who both had one RBI in the win. Baltimore started Wells, who allowed one hit and one earned run over 6.2 innings, while Suarez picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles won two out of three against the Dodgers and all three against the Padres. Baltimore has won seven of their last eight games and they are last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.60 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and a .259 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 625 runs with a .240 batting average and a .307 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 17 home runs and 54 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 16 home runs and 61 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Cade Povich, who is 3-7 with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 96.0 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 64-82 this year after they lost game two by a score of 2-1 on Wednesday night. Pittsburgh scored in the fourth inning, but went scoreless over the last six innings for the loss. The Pirates recorded two hits in the game and they were led by Horwitz, who went 1-4 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. Pittsburgh started Skenes, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Nicolas got the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates lost all three against the Brewers, but did sweep the Dodgers in three games before that. Pittsburgh has lost five games in a row and they are last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 525 runs with a .231 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with 19 home runs and 56 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 15 home runs and 70 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Johan Oviedo, who is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 20.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Pirates

• The Orioles have won seven of their last eight games.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight road games after going to extra innings.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games after playing the previous day.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in five of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles’ last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Pirates’ last eight road games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Orioles’ last 10 games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Pirates’ last 10 road games against American League opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Adley Rutschman has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances with the Orioles as favorites.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Tommy Pham has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Johan Oviedo has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances against AL opponents.
• Johan Oviedo has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents.

Orioles vs Pirates Prediction 

Baltimore has won the first two games of this series in very low scoring fashion and they will look to complete the sweep here. The Orioles are 35-38 at home this year, while the Pirates are 22-49 on the road. Pittsburgh has lost five games in a row and they have scored two runs or fewer in all five. The Pirates are starting Oviedo, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. The Orioles are going with Povich, who has allowed 4, 2, 4, and 3 earned runs in his last four. I know we have seen some inconsistent play from Povich, but I have to fade the Pirates at the plate. Take the O’s here.