Orioles vs Rays Prediction 8/16/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Orioles vs Rays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, August 16^th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 74-48 record this season and are sitting in 1st place in the AL East. They have a 41-20 home record and are coming off a 3-4 home loss against the Orioles. They will face the Blue Jays and the Orioles next.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a .261 batting average this season, a .331 OBP, and a .407 slugging percentage. The Rays’ pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Chandler Simpson leads the Rays with a .308 batting average, while Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI with 79 and adds a team-high 35 home runs.

Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 5-9 record, a 5.33 ERA, and a 1.50 WHIP.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 60-63 record this season and are sitting in 5th place in the AL East. They have a 28-33 away record and are coming off a 4-3 away win against the Rays. They will face the Yankees and the Rays next.

The Baltimore Orioles have a .236 batting average this season, a .320 OBP, and a .397 slugging percentage. The Orioles’ pitching staff has a 4.23 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Pete Alonso leads the Orioles with a .264 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 78 and adding a team-high 27 home runs.

Trevor Rogers (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, and he has a 7-8 record, a 4.21 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP.

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: August 16, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta      Record this season: 5-9      ERA: 5.33
• Home Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Orioles: 1-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last 13 day games at Tropicana Field after going to extra innings.
• The Orioles have lost 11 of their last 13 day games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 11 day games at Tropicana Field after going to extra innings.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as underdogs following a win.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven day games.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Trevor Rogers      Record this season: 7-8      ERA: 4.21
• Road Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Rays: 1-1

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The road team has won each of the Rays’ last 12 games.
• The Rays have lost eight of their last nine games as favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Rays’ last 15 games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against the Orioles at Tropicana Field following a loss.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five day games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Rays’ last eight home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Orioles’ last nine road games following an extra innings win have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Trevor Rogers’ last six appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Rays’ last eight home games against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Junior Caminero has hit at least one home run in four of the Rays’ last eight games as favorites.
• Chandler Simpson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Rays as favorites.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (35) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Yohel Pozo has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Trevor Rogers has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Trevor Rogers has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL East opponents.
• Pete Alonso ranks T9th in the league in Home Runs (27) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.261).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (865).
• The Orioles rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (473).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1133).

Orioles vs Rays Prediction

The Orioles have won their last five meetings against the Rays, including their last two visits in Tampa.

In this Orioles vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -140 home favorites. The Rays are being favored at home because they have the best home record in baseball, but Freddy Peralta has been fade material and the Orioles have been dominating this series, having won both games. Peralta has been awful as a Ray, with 10 earned runs in two starts, while Trevor Rogers have been very good, having given up two runs or less in nine of his last ten starts. Take the Orioles in this one for plus money.