Orioles vs Rays Prediction 9/23/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 23rd at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 73-83 this year after they lost three out of four against the Yankees by scores of 0-7, 4-2, 1-6, and 1-7. In their game four loss, Baltimore led 1-0 in the fifth inning, but ended up giving up six runs in the 10th for the extra innings loss. The Orioles recorded four hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Basallo, who went 1-4 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. Baltimore started Bradish, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Strowd picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Orioles won all three against the White Sox, but lost all three against the Blue Jays before that. Baltimore has won four of their last seven games and they are last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.61 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and a .259 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 656 runs with a .237 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 17 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 16 home runs and 65 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Dean Kremer, who is 10-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 164.0 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 76-80 this season after they lost two out of three against the Red Sox by scores of 7-11, 3-6, and 7-3. In their game three win, Tampa Bay nearly blew a 4-1 lead, but added some insurance runs in the eighth to seal the victory. The Rays recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Morel, who went 2-4 with four RBIs in the win. Tampa Bay started Boyle, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 4.1 innings, while Cleavinger picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Rays split four games with the Blue Jays and lost two out of three against the Cubs. Tampa Bay has won three of their last five games and they are fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 696 runs with a .252 batting average and a .314 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 44 home runs and 108 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 30 home runs and 81 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who is 11-11 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 164.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Rays

• The Rays have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have won each of their last four games as underdogs after going to extra innings.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in five of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Why the Rays will beat the Orioles

• The Orioles have lost 10 of their last 11 games against AL East opponents.
• The road team has won six of the Orioles’ last seven games.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last five road games following a home win.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles’ last 15 home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays’ last four games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight night games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the last seven night games between the Rays and Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Dean Kremer has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Dean Kremer has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Orioles as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in each of his last three home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Dylan Carlson has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against opponents that held a losing record.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last eight road games against AL East opponents.
• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.

Orioles vs Rays Prediction

These two teams come into this series sitting at the bottom of the AL East standings, but Tampa Bay does have a three game lead for fourth. The Rays are 35-40 on the road this season, while the Orioles are 37-41 at home. Baltimore had almost no offense in their last series against New York and they are starting Kremer, who has allowed 2, 0, 7, and 6 earned runs in his last four. TB is going with Pepiot, who has allowed 4, 0, 0, 0, and 4 earned runs in his last five. Both of these pitchers are super inconsistent, so give me the over here.