Orioles vs Rays Prediction 9/25/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 25th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 74-84 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 6-0 and 2-6. In their game two loss, Baltimore allowed the first six runs in the game, but did score two runs in the eighth to avoid the shutout. The Orioles recorded three hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Westburg, who went 1-4 with two RBIs in the loss. Baltimore started Wells, who allowed seven hits and three earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Castillo allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles lost three out of four against the Yankees, but did win all three against the White Sox before that. Baltimore has lost three of their last four games and they are last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and a .258 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 664 runs with a .236 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 17 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 16 home runs and 67 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Cade Povich, who is 3-8 with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 106.2 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 77-81 this season after they won game two by a score of 6-2 on Wednesday night. Tampa Bay led 1-0 in the first inning and never looked back, as they picked up the easy win. The Rays recorded 11 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Lowe, who went 2-5 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Tampa Bay started Baz, who allowed zero hits and zero earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Uceta got the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Rays lost two out of three against the Red Sox and split four games with the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay has lost three of their last five games and they are fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 702 runs with a .251 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 44 home runs and 109 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 31 home runs and 83 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Drew Rasmussen, who is 10-5 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 147.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Rays

• The Rays have lost each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The underdogs have won seven of the Rays’ last eight games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 10 of the Rays’ last 11 games.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in six of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Why the Rays will beat the Orioles

• The Orioles have lost each of their last five day games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have won each of their last seven Thursday day games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have covered the run line each of their last seven Thursday day games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Thursday games against the Orioles.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven Thursday day games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles’ last 13 games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Rays’ last six day games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five games between the Rays and Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Gary Sanchez has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Dylan Carlson has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances after playing the previous day.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded five strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Rays as road favorites.
• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against AL East opponents.

Orioles vs Rays Prediction 

Tampa Bay was able to get the win on Wednesday night to even this series at one and they have won two of their last three games. The Rays are 36-41 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 38-42 at home. Baltimore has allowed 6+ runs in three of their last four games and they are starting Povich, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts. TB is going with Rasmussen, who has allowed 2, 3, 0, 3, and 2 earned runs in his last five. I like this pitching matchup and I don’t think either lineup is very good right now, so I will take the under here.