Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction 9/5/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Orioles vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 5th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 69-73 this year after they lost the first two games by scores of 5-6 and 0-1. In game two, Baltimore fell behind in the first inning and never found any offense in the shutout loss. The Orioles recorded six hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Mayo, who went 1-3. Baz allowed four hits and one earned run over 6.1 innings for the loss, while Sanders threw an inning in relief. Prior to this series, Baltimore lost two out of three against the Rockies, but did sweep the Athletics before that. 

This season, Baltimore has a 4.15 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .254 opponent batting average, while they have scored 640 runs with a .235 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Pete Alonso has led the Orioles with 33 home runs and 94 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 22 home runs and 57 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Chris Bassitt, who is 6-4 with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 79.2 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 77-65 this season after they won game two by a score of 1-0 last night. Boston opened the scoring in the first inning, but never scored anymore runs in the low scoring win. The Red Sox recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Gasper, who went 2-4 with one home run and one RBI. Suarez allowed five hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Chapman picked up the save. Prior to this series, Boston lost two out of three against the Mariners and three out of four against the Yankees. 

This season, Boston has a 3.65 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while they have scored 634 runs with a .249 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Willson Contreras has led the Red Sox with 26 home runs and 79 RBIs, while Jarren Duran has added 19 home runs and 68 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Sonny Gray, who is 16-4 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 143.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last five Saturday night games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have won each of their last four Saturday night games as underdogs against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last six games.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against AL opponents.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Orioles have lost each of their last seven home games against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games as road favorites against the Orioles.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 Saturday road games.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games as home underdogs.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six home night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Red Sox’s last seven games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Orioles’ last six games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Orioles.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Red Sox’s last four night games.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Chris Bassitt has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his 13 previous home appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Coby Mayo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances.
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances against the Red Sox.
• Chris Bassitt has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Alonso ranks 8th in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Mickey Gasper has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four night games.
• Sonny Gray has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last eight Saturday appearances in night games.
• Sonny Gray has recorded a win in nine of his last 10 road appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Sonny Gray ranks T1st in the league for Wins (16) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1301).
• The Orioles rank 4th in the league for walks this season (525).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (259).
• The Red Sox are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction 

Baltimore comes into this matchup on a four game losing streak and they have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last five. The Orioles are 34-36 at home this year, while the Red Sox are 42-31 on the road. Boston has split their last four games and they have scored 6+ runs in three of their last five. The Red Sox are starting Gray, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, while Bassitt has allowed 5, 1, 3, 2, and 3 earned runs in his last five outings. Take the Red Sox -1 here.