Padres vs Cubs Prediction 10/2/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, October 2^nd at the Wrigley Field in Game 3 of this NL Wild Card series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs finished the regular season with a 92-70 record and were placed first in the NL Central. The Cubs have a 51-32 home record and are 74-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-3 home defeat by the Padres, that ended their four-game winning streak. Their last three game have gone under the total.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .430 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the team with 3 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .429 batting average. Carson Kelly leads the team with one RBI and one home run.

Jameson Taillon (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 11-7 record, 3.68 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres finished the regular season with a 90-72 record and were placed first in the NL West. The Padres have a 39-44 road record and are 69-89 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-0 road victory over the Cubs, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games. Under is 5-2 in their last 7 games.

The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .390 slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Xander Bogaerts has 3 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .375 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team in RBI, with two, adding one home run.

Yu Darvish (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 5-5 record, 5.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

San Diego Padres @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: October 2, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon      Record this season: 11-7      ERA: 3.68
• Home Record: 5-2
• Last 5 against Padres: 2-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last seven games against the Padres following a loss.
• The Padres have lost nine of their last 10 games against the Cubs following a win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Cubs’ last seven games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven playoff games following a win.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against NL West opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish      Record this season: 5-5      ERA: 5.38
• Road Record: 1-3
• Last 5 against Cubs: 3-1

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Cubs have lost four of their last five playoff games as favorites.
• The Padres have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Thursday games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Thursday day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Padres have won the first inning in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six playoff games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Padres’ last eight games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Padres’ last 14 games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the last five games between the Padres and Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded three or more strikeouts in each of his last 14 appearances with his team as a favorite against NL West opponents.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 home appearances.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances.
• Nico Hoerner ranks 6th in the league in Hits (178) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Manny Machado has hit a home run in seven of the Padres’ last eight Thursday games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Yu Darvish has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his 32 previous appearances at Wrigley Field.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.
• Yu Darvish has recorded a win in each of his last three road appearances against the Cubs.
• Luis Arraez ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (181) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (405).
• The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for RBIs this season (771).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1197).

Padres vs Cubs Prediction

The Padres are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Cubs, but the Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Their last four meetings have gone under the total.

In this Padres vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -120 home favorites. The Padres managed to stay alive in the series and force a game 3, but the Cubs had a bullpen game in game 2. Chicago now puts Jameson Taillon on the mound, who has been excellent this season, and even better at home, with a 3.05 ERA. He is also coming into this matchup red-hot, having just two earned runs across his last three starts. On the flip side, Darvish has been mediocre at best this season, and has been terrible on the road, with a 7.26 road ERA. The Cubs have a huge pitching advantage and I like them to get the ticket for the next round in front of their home crowd. Take the Cubs on the moneyline in this one.