Padres vs Mets Prediction 9/17/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Mets Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 17^th at the Citi Field in the second game of this series, with the Mets having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 78-73 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 47-29 home record and are 71-72 in over/under. They are coming off an 8-3 home victory over the Padres, and have back-to-back wins. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 games and are playing the Cubs and the Nationals next.

The Mets have a .250 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .428 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 159 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .268. He also adds a team-high 118 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 40 home runs.

David Peterson (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 9-5 record, 3.77 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have an 82-69 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 35-41 road record, and are 64-81 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 3-8 road defeat by the Mets, and have back-to-back losses. Under is 4-2 in their last 6 games and are playing the White Sox and the Brewers next.

The Padres have a .251 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Louis Arraez leads the Padres with 166 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .286 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team both in RBI, with 88, and in home runs, with 25.

Nick Pivetta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 13-5 record, 2.73 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets Betting Trends: September 17, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: David Peterson      Record this season: 9-5      ERA: 3.77
• Home Record: 5-1
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-2

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last five home games against the Padres.
• The Padres have lost each of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight night games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight games as road underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta      Record this season: 13-5      ERA: 2.73
• Road Record: 5-4
• Last 5 against Mets: 2-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last seven night games at Citi Field following a road loss.
• The Mets have lost each of their last six night games after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 night games at Citi Field following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against the Padres at Citi Field following a win.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Mets’ last eight games as favorites against the Padres have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres’ last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last five home games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five home games against NL West opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 13 games as home favorites.
• Juan Soto ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.395) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in four of the Padres’ last five games.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in each of the Padres’ last three road games against NL East opponents.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Padres as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
• Luis Arraez ranks T5th in the league in Hits (166) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (138).
• The Mets rank 4th in the league for walks this season (527).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.226).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1119).

Padres vs Mets Prediction

The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Mets, but the Mets have won their last four meetings in New York. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Padres vs Mets Prediction, the Mets are coming as -115 home favorites. San Diego has the best bullpen in baseball and the pitching advantage in this game, with Pivetta on the mound. He has been elite this season, and coming into this matchup in excellent form, with a 2.10 ERA across his last 5 starts. On the flip side, Peterson has been struggling for the Mets lately, having given up 15 runs in his last three starts. I like the value with the road dog in this spot, so take the San Diego Padres on the moneyline in this one.