Boston Red Sox (65-52) vs. San Diego Padres (64-52)
August 9, 2025 8:40 pm EDT
The Line: San Diego Padres -156 / Boston Red Sox 128; Over/Under: 7.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, August 9, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox (65-52, 26-30 Away) went through their best period of the second half, during which they recorded seven consecutive wins. Boston beat the Twins, swept the Astros, and defeated the Royals. The Red Sox did lose Game 3 against the Royals, but opened the current series against the Padres with a 10-2 victory on Friday. Masataka Yoshida and Connor Wong led the offense with three RBI apiece, while Walker Buehler got the win after allowing no runs on four hits with four strikeouts and two walks across 6.0 innings of work.
This year, the Red Sox average 4.97 runs per game (5th in the MLB) on a .254/.323/.430 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Red Sox’s staff has a 3.72 ERA (7th) and 1.29 WHIP (19th). Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with a .259 batting average, 18 home runs, and 73 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox is Lucas Giolito, who is 8-2 in 17 starts this season, with a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 95.2 innings.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres (64-52, 36-20 Home) are also playing well recently; they won nine of the previous 12 games. San Diego swept the Mets, beat the Cardinals, and defeated the Diamondbacks in the last three series. However, the Padres succumbed to a massive 10-2 defeat to the Red Sox in Game 1 last night. Nick Pivetta took the loss after allowing five runs on six hits with three strikeouts and three walks in 6.0 innings.
This season, the Padres average 4.14 runs per game (24th in the MLB) on a .251/.320/.382 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.58 ERA (3rd) and 1.20 WHIP (3rd). Manny Machado leads the Padres with a .300 batting average, 20 home runs, and 72 RBI this season.
Michael King will take the mound for the Padres on Saturday. The 30-year-old right-hander has a 4-2 record in ten starts this year with a 2.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 55.2 innings.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Red Sox’s last four games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the last five games between the Red Sox and Padres at Petco Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Red Sox’s last 11 games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight games as home favorites.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Padres rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.228).
- The Padres rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (813).
- The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for runs scored this season (587).
- The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for RBIs this season (563).
Padres vs Red Sox Prediction
The Red Sox won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including the last two. Three of the last four duels went Over, which was the case in seven of Boston’s previous ten games. I am going with another Over here, especially because of a relatively low run total (7.5). Michael King returned from a lengthy shoulder injury, and I expect him to show some rustiness, which should be a chance for the Red Sox to score multiple runs early on. Lucas Giolito, on the other hand, is in fine form, but I am backing the Padres to score 2+ runs against him, as they will be motivated to bounce back from last night’s poor performance. Go with Over.
