Padres vs Reds Prediction 9/8/25 MLB Picks Today

The Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres meet Monday in MLB action at Petco Park. Here’s a Padres vs Reds Prediction. This article will include a Padres vs Reds Pick.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 72-71 on the year and play the Athletics, Cardinals, and Cubs next. The Cincinnati Reds are batting .248 on the season, have a .318 OBP, and a .392 slugging percentage. The Cincinnati Reds pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz leads the Cincinnati Reds with 150 hits and 80 RBI, while TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer have combined for 246 hits and 110 RBI.

Nick Lodolo gets the ball for the Cincinnati Reds, and he is 8-7 with a 3.22 ERA and 130 strikeouts this season. Lodolo is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 24 strikeouts in his career against the San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 78-65 on the year and play the Rockies, Mets, and White Sox next. The San Diego Padres are batting .253 on the season, have a .323 OBP, and a .388 slugging percentage. The San Diego Padres pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Luis Arraez leads the San Diego Padres with 158 hits and 54 RBI while Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined for 295 hits and 145 RBI.

Yu Darvish gets the ball for the San Diego Padres, and he is 3-5 with a 5.75 ERA and 48 strikeouts this season. Darvish is 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 85 strikeouts in his career against the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 8, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish      Record this season: 3-5      ERA: 5.75
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Reds: 2-3

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last seven night games against the Padres following a home win.
• The Padres have won nine of their last 10 home games against the Reds following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against the Reds following a road win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line each of their last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five Monday night games as road underdogs.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games at Petco Park against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo      Record this season: 8-7      ERA: 3.22
• Road Record: 5-5
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Padres’ last six games at Petco Park.
• The Padres have lost each of their last three games as home favorites.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Monday games as favorites.
• The road team has covered the run line in five of the Padres’ last six games.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four home games.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Padres’ last 12 night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Three of the Reds’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four night games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Reds’ last 12 night games at Petco Park.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Yu Darvish has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against the Reds.
• Jake Cronenworth has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Yu Darvish has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Gavin Sheets has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Reds.
• Elias Diaz has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Reds.
• Luis Arraez ranks 4th in the league in Hits (158) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Austin Hays has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last six games as underdogs.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded five or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 road appearances.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Reds as road underdogs.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T8th in the league in Steals (32) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.226).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1061).
• The Reds rank 24th in the league for home runs this season (141).
• The Reds rank 7th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.237).

Padres vs Reds Prediction

The Padres are the better team and should win at home, but I can’t get there with Darvish, who has had a rocky season. Darvish has a 5.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season, and he’s allowed 21 hits and 16 runs in his last 28 innings. Lodolo has been sharper with a 3.22 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, and he has a 2.52 ERA and .193 allowed batting average in 75 road innings. I’ll take a shot with the Reds in this spot, as Darvish hasn’t been good.