Philadelphia Phillies (93-73) vs Atlanta Braves (105-59)
2023-10-11 17:07:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -114 / Atlanta Braves +104 --- Over/Under: 9
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The Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Wednesday in MLB postseason action from Citizens Bank Park. This will be Game 3 in a best-of-five Division Series playoff. The series is tied 1-1 after a shutout win by the Phillies in the opener and a one-run victory by Atlanta in Game 2 that evened things up. Check back all season long for free MLB picks at Sports Chat Place.
The Braves didn’t play very well in Saturday’s Division Series opener. After two errors and just five hits, Atlanta ended up with a 3-0 defeat. Ozzie Albies posted one hit and one walk in a tepid offensive outing. In Game 2 things got better for Atlanta after a slow start and a late rally from a 4-0 deficit (and a wild game-ending double play) for a 5-4 comeback victory. Both Travis d’Arnaud and Austin Riley finished with two-run homers to carry the team at the plate.
It’ll be Bryce Elder in the starting role for the Braves on Wednesday in Game 3. This year Elder went 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts. Elder gave up four runs over 10.2 innings against the Phillies this year.
Atlanta Braves Team Facts
- The Braves have won four of their last five playoff games as underdogs after not playing the previous day.
- The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last seven playoff games as underdogs after not playing the previous day.
- The Braves have led after 3 innings in four of their last six playoff games as underdogs.
- The Braves have led after 5 innings in five of their last seven playoff games as road underdogs.
- The Braves have led after 7 innings in five of their last seven playoff games as road underdogs.
Over on the Phillies’ side, they got two runs, two hits, two walks and a solo homer from Bryce Harper in the shutout opener win over the weekend. Game 2 saw Philadelphia head into the bottom of the sixth inning with a 4-0 lead but the team couldn’t hold it despite giving up just four hits. Philly’s JT Realmuto posted two hits, two RBI and a homer in the victory, while Nick Castellanos added two hits and a run.
It’ll be Aaron Nola in the starting pitcher role for the Phillies on Wednesday. In his lone playoff outing this year Nola was great, posting 7.0 clean innings with three hits, one walk and three strikeouts in a win over Miami last Wednesday. Nola went 12-9 with a 4.49 ERA in 32 starts during the 2023 regular season.
Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts
- The Phillies have won each of their last six home games against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six playoff games against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last six playoff games against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
- The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
- The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (947).
- The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1543).
ANDREW’S FREE PICK
I’ll lean toward taking a stab on the Braves here, but the confidence level is pretty low—Philly makes complete sense as well. Coming into the postseason Atlanta looked to be a very good play. That said, the Braves have struggled mightily at the plate in the first two games of this series, and they’re fortunate to be heading to Philly with a 1-1 tie. Atlanta has mustered just nine total hits and three errors over 18 innings of play so far, which is certainly an aberration for such a talented offense.
The Braves will have their hands full with Nola on the mound in the start as well; he put up just three earned on 10 hits and zero walks over his last 12.2 innings of the regular season. Nola is coming off a nice victory versus the Marlins and should bag another quality start here. Offensively, Philadelphia has 15 hits in two games this series and should be up 2-0 at this point. All of that said, I’m thinking Atlanta’s bats will come around in Game 3 but it’s a tall order. I’m staying away, but it should be another great game to watch.