Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction 7-23-25 MLB Picks

The Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Wednesday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will send out Lucas Giolito for the start here, and Giolito is 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 70 strikeouts this season. In his career, Giolito is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 13 strikeouts against the Phillies. Jesus Luzardo will get the start for the Phillies here and is 8-5 with a 4.29 ERA and 129 strikeouts this season. This will be Luzardo’s second career start against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to shake off a 4-1 loss at the hands of the Phillies last time out to sit at 54-49 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will head home for a marquee series against the Dodgers.

Red Sox Drop 4 Of Their Last 5 Games

Alex Bregman has 65 hits, including 18 doubles, along with 12 home runs and 38 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 96 hits with 15 home runs, 59 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 105 hits with 25 doubles, 10 triples, 9 home runs, 51 RBIs, and a team-high 16 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 51 hits with 10 doubles, 6 homers, and 21 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 20 home runs with 55 RBIs and 5 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 14 homers, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 48 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a win.
• The Red Sox have won five of their last six games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against the Red Sox following a home win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in five of their last six road games against the Phillies following a loss.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in night games.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded five or more strikeouts in 12 of his last 13 road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Red Sox from Tuesday’s matchup to sit at 58-43 this season. After this series, the Phillies will head on the road for a series against the New York Yankees.

Phillies Win Back-To-Back Games

Nick Castellanos has 103 hits with 22 doubles, including 12 home runs and 54 RBIs, while Kyle Schwarber has 92 hits with a team-high 33 home runs and 75 RBIs but also has a team-high 120 strikeouts as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 9 stolen bases, 22 doubles, 13 home runs, and 41 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 117 hits with a team-high 25 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 14 doubles and Bryson Stott has 9 doubles, 2 triples, 6 homers, and 38 RBIs, while Stott also has 14 stolen bases this season.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last nine night games against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last seven road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in 14 of their last 16 night games against American League opponents following a home win.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven strikeouts in four of his last five appearances.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in five of the Phillies’ last six night games.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in three of the Phillies’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Max Kepler has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against the Red Sox.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Trea Turner ranks 2nd in the league in Hits (117) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last six night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Phillies’ last seven night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Phillies here. I get the case to be made for the Red Sox here, given how well Lucas Giolito has pitched over the last month, but the thing is that the Red Sox have not been hitting left-handed pitching all that well. Sure, Jesus Luzardo’s had his fair share of struggles as of late, but I think this is a good spot for Luzardo, and the Phillies have been getting the job done offensively behind their pitchers. Give me Philadelphia here.