Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 7-28-24 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 28th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.

Phillies are Going for Rare Recent Winning Streak 

The Philadelphia Phillies are 65-39 this year and they have lost three of their last five games. Philadelphia lost the first game in this series, but they did win game two by a score of 8-0. Prior to this series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Twins, lost two out of three against the Pirates, and lost two out of three against the Athletics. Philadelphia is 4-7 in their last 11 games, but they continue to lead the NL East by quite a few games. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.42 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 509 runs with a .257 batting average and a .328 on base percentage. Alec Bohm is batting .297 with 11 home runs and 71 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia has allowed at least four runs in seven of their last eleven games. 

Guardians Offense Continues to Struggle 

The Cleveland Guardians are 62-42 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Cleveland won the first game in this series by a score of 3-1, but they were shutout in game two. Prior to this series, the Guardians split four games with the Tigers, lost two out of three against the Padres, and lost two out of three against the Rays. Cleveland is 5-9 in their last 14 games, but they are leading the AL Central. 

The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Guardians offense has scored 474 runs with a .240 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .270 with 24 home runs and 82 RBI’s for the Guardians this season. Cleveland has scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Joey Cantillo, who is making his first start of the season. Cantillo has a 2.79 ERA over 29.0 innings in Triple-A this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Kolby Allard, who is making his first appearance in the MLB this year. Allard has a 5.23 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over 63.2 innings in 10 starts for Lehigh Valley. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Phillies

• The Phillies have lost each of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Guardians have won each of their last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in 10 of their last 15 games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Guardians’ last nine road games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last four games between the Guardians and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last four day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last seven Sunday games against American League opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies’ last four day games.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine Sunday day appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
• Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last nine home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one total base in each of the Phillies’ last nine home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Double in four of the Phillies’ last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryce Harper ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (24) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Josh Naylor has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Guardians’ last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Andres Gimenez has recorded two or more total bases in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Ramirez has scored at least one run in four of the Guardians’ last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances against NL East opponents.
• Andres Gimenez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with the Guardians as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Will Brennan has hit at least one home run in four of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Steven Kwan ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.340) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Philadelphia Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (936).
• The Philadelphia Phillies rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (95).
• The Cleveland Guardians rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (801).
• The Cleveland Guardians rank 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.67).

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 

The Phillies were able to pick up the shutout victory in game two of this series and while they have one of the best records in baseball, they have struggled over the last few weeks. Philadelphia is 38-17 at home this season, while Cleveland is 29-27 on the road. The Guardians have also had recent struggles and their offense is really letting them down right now. This pitching matchup is really interesting and with both guys making their first appearance of the season, this could go in several different directions. Allard has some tough numbers so far this season, so my Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians prediction is for the Guardians to get the win.