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Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction 6-28-24 Picks

Miami Marlins (28-52) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (53-27)
June 28, 2024 6:20 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -312 / Miami Marlins +255; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Friday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins prediction. This will be the second installment in a four-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Marlins took on the Kansas City Royals in their early-week series. Miami won 2-1 in the Tuesday game but otherwise took losses 4-1 and 5-1 to drop the set. On Thursday versus the Phillies, the Marlins posted a comeback win 7-4. Starting pitcher Trevor Rogers finished with 6.0 innings and three earned runs.

In the starter slot for the Marlins on Friday it’ll be Kyle Tyler. This year Tyler has a 4.50 ERA without a decision in two games (one start). Tyler is 1-0 with a 2.82 career ERA in nine games (one start).

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Over on the Phillies’ side, they played the Detroit Tigers this week. Philly won 8-1 in the opener then took a 4-1 defeat in game two. In the rubber match, Philadelphia powered out a 6-2 victory. In game one on Thursday the Phillies were out-hit 13-8 in the defeat. Zack Wheeler went 6.2 innings as a starter with two earned on seven this and two walks.

It’ll be Christopher Sanchez in the starter role for the Phillies on Friday. This year Sanchez is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 15 starts. Over his 56 career games (37 starts), Sanchez is 11-10 with a 3.62 ERA.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites against the Marlins have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Marlins’ last four night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last six night games against NL East opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last three games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 home appearances.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 17 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Phillies’ last five games against NL East opponents.
  • Bryce Harper has hit a home run in two of the Phillies’ last three night games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in seven of the Phillies’ last eight night games against opponents that held a losing record.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in two of the Marlins’ last three games against NL opponents.
  • Josh Bell has recorded a Double in each of the Marlins’ last three road games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Josh Bell has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has scored a run in each of the Marlins’ last four games against NL opponents.
  • Josh Bell has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against the Phillies.
  • Tim Anderson has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Marlins’ last 10 games against NL opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

I was going to stay with the Phillies, but with that thick line I’m taking the Marlins on principle. Pitching-wise, Sanchez has a couple of great starts in the bank over his last pair. In those two combined he’s 2-0 with 14.0 innings, one earned run, nine hits and a walk. As for Tyler, he’s coming off two earned in 4.0 innings versus Seattle on June 23.

On Thursday the Phillies blew a 3-0 lead in the seventh inning, coughing up seven runs over the next three frames. Each of Philly’s four pitchers gave up at least one earned run, so it wasn’t a great night on the mound. I could easily see Philadelphia bouncing back in game two, but you never know.

Andrew's Free Pick: Miami Marlins +255

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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