NY Mets (19-21) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (29-13)
May 15, 2024 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -175 / NY Mets +148; Over/Under: +8
(Get latest betting odds)
The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Wednesday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Prediction. This will be the third installment in a four-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets took on the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. New York lost the first two games of that set 4-2 and 4-1, but staved off the sweep with a Sunday win 4-3. After a 5-4 loss to the Phillies on Monday, in game two the Mets took a shutout loss 4-0 with just four team hits. Starter Jose Butto managed 5.0 innings with two earned on one hit and four walks.
In the starting pitcher role for the Mets on Wednesday it’ll be Adrian Houser. Over seven games (six starts) this year Houser is 0-3 with a 7.63 ERA and 16 Ks in 30.2 innings. Houser is 31-37 with a 4.20 ERA in 136 career games (103 starts).
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Over on the Phillies’ side, they played the Miami Marlins in their last set. Philadelphia won 8-2 and 8-3 in the first pair of games before a 7-6 loss in the finale. After their Monday win, on Tuesday Philadelphia scored twice in both the third and ninth innings. Aaron Nola pitched a complete game with four hits, no walks and eight strikeouts.
It’ll be Ranger Suarez in the starting pitcher role for the Phillies on Wednesday. This season Suarez is 7-0 with a 1.50 ERA over eight games. He’s got 55 Ks in 54.0 innings. Suarez is 36-21 with a 3.21 ERA in 142 games (74 starts).
Mets vs Phillies Injury Notes
Mets RP Drew Smith (shoulder) is set to be activated from the 15-day Injured List on Wednesday.
Phillies catcher JT Realmuto (knee) was out of the starting lineup again on Tuesday but did do some work on the field and in the batting cage.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last nine night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mets have lost each of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last nine night games against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last nine home night games.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight home night games.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Bryce Harper has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games as home favorites.
- Alec Bohm has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against the Mets.
- Ranger Suarez has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with the Phillies as home favorites.
- Trea Turner has recorded two or more hits in each of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Ranger Suarez has recorded a win in each of his last seven appearances.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Trea Turner has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last 11 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his last nine appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Ranger Suarez ranks 1st in the league for Wins (7) this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Brandon Nimmo has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two games as road underdogs.
- Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven road appearances against the Phillies.
- Brandon Nimmo has scored at least one run in each of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last seven road games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Mets as road underdogs against the Phillies.
- Starling Marte has recorded at least one Single in seven of the Mets’ last eight road games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in each of the Mets’ last four night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Philadelphia Phillies rank T1st in the league for triples this season (10).
- The Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (222).
- The New York Mets rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (187).
- The New York Mets rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (29).
Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Prediction
I’ll stick with Philadelphia. Suarez is doing well this year and should notch a quality start to get the Phillies going. In his last three starts combined, Suarez is 3-0 with four earned runs in 21.0 innings on 13 hits and three walks. As for Houser, he’s given up 10 earned runs in his last 11.1 innings total.
On Tuesday, Philadelphia got a stellar pitching performance from Nola, saving their bullpen for the rest of the week. Everybody but Kody Clemens and Garrett Stubbs (combined 0-for-8) got on base at least once in a great all-around effort. I like Philly to keep it going on Wednesday.
