Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 9-28-23 MLB Picks
Philadelphia Phillies (88-69) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (74-83)
2023-09-28 18:05:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -210 / Pittsburgh Pirates +180 --- Over/Under:
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The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. This matchup marks the finale in a three-game series. The Phillies eked out an extra-innings victory in the opener, then in game two Philadelphia posted another close win. Check back all season long for free MLB picks at Sports Chat Place.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates came back from a 2-0 deficit in the Tuesday opener of this series but eventually lost 3-2 in 10 innings. Bryan Reynolds and Henry Davis (two hits) each had a solo homer in the loss. On Wednesday Pittsburgh was up 5-0 going into the bottom of the fourth but eventually lost 7-6. Davis had two RBI, and Connor Joe finished with four hits, two runs and an RBI.
In the starter role for the finale the Pirates will go with Luis Ortiz. This year Ortiz is 4-5 with a 4.96 ERA in 17 games (14 starts). Over his last seven games (five starts) Ortiz is 2-2 with a 6.32 ERA.
Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts
The Pirates have lost each of their last 10 Thursday night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last 11 road games against National League opponents following a road loss.
The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five Thursday games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Pirates have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last seven night games at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents.
Philadelphia Phillies
Over on the Phillies’ side, they got one RBI each from Bryce Harper (two walks), Brandon Marsh (solo homer) and Johan Rojas (two hits) in the opener win. On Wednesday Philly got home runs from Edmundo Sosa (two hits), Harper (two runs; three hits) and Garrett Stubbs (three RBI) in the victory.
Zack Wheeler will take the starter job in the Thursday matchup for the Phillies. So far this year Wheeler is 13-6 with a 3.64 ERA in 31 starts. He’s got 207 Ks in 188.0 innings total. Wheeler is 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA in his last seven starts.
Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts
The Phillies have won each of their last 11 home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against the Pirates following a win.
The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last 14 home games against opponents that held a losing record.
Matchup/League Facts
The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
The Pittsburgh Pirates rank T4th in the league for triples this season (30).
The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 26th in the league for batting average this season (.239).
ANDREW’S FREE PICK
I’ll probably stick with the Phillies. The line’s too thick to mess with, though. Wheeler had a rough game a few starts back versus Atlanta, giving up six earned in 5.0 innings on seven hits and three walks. That said, Wheeler has been solid over his last two starts, posting a combined four earned in 13.0 innings for a 2-0 record (one versus the Braves). On Wednesday Philly made the most of eight team hits and had a very big fourth inning. The Phillies are on a nice seven-game win streak right now, and I like them to keep it up for the sweep here.