San Diego Padres (37-38) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (47-24)
June 17, 2024 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -175 / San Diego Padres +150; Over/Under: +9.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres prediction for this MLB game on Monday, June 17th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Phillies Have Lost Two Straight Series
The Philadelphia Phillies are 47-24 this year and they have lost four of their last five games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series loss against Baltimore, where they lost two out of three games and allowed 14 runs in games two and three. Prior to that series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Red Sox, split two games with the Mets, and swept the Brewers in three games. Philadelphia is 2-5 in their last seven games, but they are leading the NL East over the Braves.
The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.17 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a .225 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 355 runs with a .252 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .280 with 15 home runs and 46 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia is third in the MLB in team ERA this year, but they have allowed at least six runs in four of their last five games.
Padres Looking for a Big Win
The San Diego Padres are 37-38 this season and they have lost four of their last seven games. San Diego is coming off of a series loss against the Mets, where they lost all three games by scores of 2-1, 5-1, and 11-6. Prior to that series, the Padres swept the Athletics in three games, split four games with the Diamondbacks, and were swept by the Angels. San Diego is 5-9 in their last 14 games and they are second in the NL West, eight games behind the Dodgers.
The San Diego pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Padres offense has scored 333 runs with a .259 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Fernando Tatis is batting .272 with 13 home runs and 35 RBI’s for the Padres this season. San Diego is 10th in the MLB in runs scored and they have scored at least five runs in five of their last nine games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 70.1 innings pitched this year. Sanchez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but he did allow four earned runs and seven hits over 4.0 innings against the Red Sox in his last start. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Randy Vasquez, who is 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP over 38.1 innings pitched this season. Vasquez has allowed three earned runs in three of his last four starts, but only allowed one earned run against Oakland last time out.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
The Phillies have won each of their last 10 home games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
The Padres have lost each of their last seven road games.
The Phillies have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites following a loss.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games following a road loss.
The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six home games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Six of the Padres’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last three games as underdogs.
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction
Philadelphia comes into this series with 47 wins on the season and they are 27-10 at home, but they have had some struggles recently. The Phillies will look to get back on the right track here, and they will turn to Cristopher Sanchez, who has been very good this year. San Diego is above .500 on the road, but they didn’t play well against the Mets over the weekend. The Padres are going with Randy Vasquez, who has allowed quite a few base runners so far this season. I don’t expect the Phillies to continue this downward trend, especially at home, so my Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres prediction is for the Phillies to win by at least two runs.
