Phillies vs Cubs Prediction 4/23/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, April 23^rd in the fourth game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 15-9 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL Central. They have a 10-5 home record and are coming off a 7-2 home win against the Phillies. Their previous three games were a 7-4 and a 5-1 home win against the Phillies, and a 2-1 home win against the Mets.

The Cubs have a .259 batting average this season, .351 OBP and .414 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter with a .320 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 22. Ian Happ adds a team‑high 6 home runs.

Edward Cabrera (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 2-0 record, 2.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have an 8-16 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL East. They have a 3-6 road record and are coming off a 2-7 road loss against the Cubs. Their previous three games were a 4-7 and a 1-5 road loss against the Cubs, and a 2-4 home loss against the Braves.

The Phillies have a .220 batting average this season, .296 OBP and .357 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 5.05 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .276 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 15, also adding a team‑high 8 home runs.

Cristopher Sanchez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 2-2 record, 1.59 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: April 23, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Edward Cabrera      Record this season: 2-0      ERA: 2.38
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last nine home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last eight games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last 12 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last nine road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 1.59
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: 1-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The favorites have won each of the Cubs’ last seven games at Wrigley Field.
• The Cubs have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last five day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Cubs.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 12 games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last four day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Cubs’ last nine games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Phillies’ last 13 games as road favorites.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 13 home games against NL East opponents.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T5th in the league in Hits (31) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in two of the Phillies’ last three day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Adolis Garcia has recorded a hit in each of his last six road appearances against the Cubs.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.351).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.259).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.281).
• The Phillies rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.220).

Phillies vs Cubs Prediction

The Cubs have won their last five meetings against the Phillies, including their last three meetings in Chicago. Over is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Phillies vs Cubs Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -125 road favorites. The Phillies have been on a free fall with eight consecutive wins and are getting favorited on the road just because of Cristopher Sanchez, but he is a leftie and the Cubs’ 4^th-best offense is even better against left-handed pitching. Cabrera is coming off back-to-back bad starts, but started the season with two shutouts and the Cubs also have a better bullpen, so I like them as home dogs in this spot. Take the Cubs on the moneyline for plus money.