Phillies vs Marlins Prediction 4/18/25 MLB Picks Today

The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Friday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Phillies vs Marlins Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Phillies vs Marlins pick.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Miami was able to win three of four games versus the Pittsburgh Pirates in their opening set of the 2025 campaign. The Marlins would then lose a series versus the New York Mets, then they would halve two games versus the Braves. Miami’s next set was a rematch with the Mets (and a series loss), then the team posted victories in two of three matchups versus the Washington Nationals. The Marlins took a 10-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in their Tuesday series opener, then on Wednesday Miami gave up home runs to four different players on the way to a 6-2 defeat. Matt Mervis had a home run (solo) of his own in the defeat, while starter Max Meyer put up 6.0 innings with three earned runs on five hits and two walks alongside eight Ks.

In the Thursday finale the Marlins out-hit the Diamondbacks 13-5 but still ended up falling 6-4. Rob Brantly led the way offensively with a 3-for-3 effort and an RBI. Starter Edward Cabrera put up 4.0 innings with five earned on four hits and three walks.

For the starter role on Friday versus Philly, the Marlins will hand off to Sandy Alcantara. This year Alcantara is 2-0 with a 4.70 ERA in three starts across 15.1 total frames. Alcantara has a career mark of 43-55 with a 3.34 ERA in 149 games (141 starts).

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Over on the Phillies’ side, they managed to beat the Washington Nationals in two of three games during their opening set. Philadelphia would then sweep the Colorado Rockies before winning two of three versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. Philadelphia lost their series versus the Atlanta Braves, then fell in two of three to the St. Louis Cardinals. In their early-week series versus the San Francisco Giants, Philly split the first two games. In Wednesday’s matchup, Philadelphia coughed up four runs in both the first and seventh innings during a blowout loss 11-4. Bryce Harper was an offensive bright spot though, notching a homer with two RBI, tow hits and two runs. Aaron Nola went 5.1 innings in the start with six earned on nine hits and four walks along with his eight strikeouts.

In the Thursday finale the Phillies posted five runs in the first inning alone on the way to a 6-4 win. Starter Christopher Sanchez finished with 7.0 innings, two earned, four hits, one walk and 12 strikeouts.

Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the start on Friday. This year Wheeler is 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA in four starts and 24.1 innings total. Wheeler is 104-71 with a 3.35 ERA in 263 career starts at the MLB level.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last six home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in 11 of their last 12 night games against the Marlins.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in 10 of their last 12 night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Phillies following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 13 of their last 15 night games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park following a loss.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven games between the Marlins and Phillies.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four night games.

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Phillies. Wheeler does need to post a good start here though, as he’s been trending in the wrong direction. On April 2 versus Colorado, Wheeler posted 7.0 frames with just one earned on three hits during a victory. Since then in two starts however, Wheeler is 0-1 with nine earned runs over 11.1 innings on 15 hits and four walks. If he can rebound and post a quality start though, Philadelphia should be in good shape down the stretch. As for Alcantara, he’s coming off a spotty outing (5.2 innings and four earned) but did bag a win. Alcantara should be able to notch a quality start if all goes well.

Philly got off to a hot start in their win over the Giants on Thursday, but most of the damage was done in the first inning and the Phillies only came up with six team hits—not to mention the two errors. I’d like to see a cleaner, more well-rounded effort here in a game Philadelphia should win.