Phillies vs Marlins Prediction 9/23/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 23rd at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 92-64 this year after they lost two out of three against Arizona by scores of 8-2, 3-4, and 2-9. In their game three loss, Philadelphia allowed the first eight runs in the game and never had a chance in the blowout loss. The Phillies recorded 11 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Castellanos and Wilson, who both had one RBI in the loss. Philadelphia started Suarez, who allowed eight hits and six earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Mayza, Kerkering, and Duran all allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Dodgers and two out of three against the Royals. Philadelphia has lost three of their last four games, but they are still first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 756 runs with a .260 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 53 home runs and 129 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 17 home runs and 70 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 13-5 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 189.1 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 76-80 this season after they won all three games against Texas by scores of 6-4, 4-3, and 4-2. In their game three win, Miami had their lead cut to 3-2 in the sixth, but added one more run to seal the victory. The Marlins recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Navarreto, Hernandez, Lopez, and Ramirez, who all had one RBI in the win. Miami started Perez, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Bachar got the win and Soriano picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Marlins swept the Rockies in three games and won two out of three against the Tigers. Miami has won 10 of their last 11 games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.63 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 692 runs with a .252 batting average and a .316 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers (IL) has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 21 home runs and 67 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Edward Cabrera, who is 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 128.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Marlins

• The Phillies have won each of their last 12 home games following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven home games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last nine Tuesday games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Tuesday games as home favorites.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last seven games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Marlins’ last four road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last 11 games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two home games.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in three of the Phillies’ last four home games against the Marlins.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Edward Cabrera has recorded five or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 appearances in night games.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Tuesday appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in four of his last six appearances after not playing the previous day.

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction 

Miami comes into this series playing some incredible baseball over the last few weeks and they are trying to get back to .500 to finish the year. The Marlins are 40-38 on the road this season, while the Phillies are 51-24 at home. Philadelphia did just lose a series against Arizona and they are starting Sanchez, who has allowed one earned run in three of his last four outings. The Marlins are going with Cabrera, who has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four. Take the Phillies by at least two runs here.