Phillies vs Mets Prediction 7/16/26 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Phillies vs Mets Prediction. This article will include a Phillies vs Mets Pick.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 40-57 on the year and play the Dodgers and Brewers next. The New York Mets are batting .234 on the season, have a .303 OBP, and have a .381 slugging percentage. The New York Mets’ pitching staff has a 4.27 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the New York Mets with 97 hits and 51 RBI, while Carson Benge and Juan Soto have combined for 173 hits and 88 RBI.

Christian Scott gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 2-1 with a 3.17 ERA and 65 strikeouts this season. This will be Scott’s second career game against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 54-43 on the year and play the Dodgers and Yankees next. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .236 on the season, with a .303 OBP and a .398 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies’ pitching staff has a 4.23 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Brandon Marsh leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 102 hits and 46 RBI, while Bryce Harper and Trea Turner have combined for 180 hits and 90 RBI.

Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 3-6 with a 5.75 ERA and 102 strikeouts this season. Nola is 11-10 with a 3.42 ERA and 224 strikeouts in his career against the New York Mets.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last nine night games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have won 12 of their last 13 night games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight road games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against the Mets.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last six home games.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as road underdogs.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites following a win.
• The road team has won each of the Mets’ last three games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs following a home loss.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Thursday games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Phillies’ last seven games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Mets’ last five road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last eight night games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Mets’ last six games at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Trea Turner has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four home games.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 10 night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (32) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Carson Benge has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Christian Scott has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against NL opponents.
• Francisco Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Juan Soto ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.405) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (949).
• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (130).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (120).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).

Phillies vs Mets Prediction

I don’t want to back Nola and his 5.75 ERA and 1.43 WHIP as much as the next guy, but backing the Mets doesn’t sound any more attractive. The Mets have been the most disappointing team in baseball and continue to lose games in creative ways. Also, no team in baseball has lost more money for bettors this season than the Mets. I don’t care what the matchup looks like or who they’re playing; you should not be putting hard-earned dollars on the Mets.

Also, for what it’s worth, Nola has been decent this month through 12 innings, allowing 10 hits and 5 runs while striking out 15. Has Nola figured things out? Either way, I’m not backing the Mets. Give me the Phillies and the cheap price.