Phillies vs Mets Prediction 9/11/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Phillies vs Mets Prediction. This article will include a Phillies vs Mets Pick.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 76-70 on the year and play the Rangers, Padres, and Nationals next. The New York Mets are batting .250 on the season, have a .329 OBP, and a .429 slugging percentage. The New York Mets pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Francisco Lindor leads the New York Mets with 153 hits and 77 RBI, while Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo have combined for 187 hits and 193 RBI.

David Peterson gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 9-5 with a 3.72 ERA and 140 strikeouts this season. Peterson is 1-4 with a 5.27 ERA and 63 strikeouts in his career against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 86-60 on the year and play the Royals, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks next. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .260 on the season, have a .330 OBP, and a .428 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 179 hits and 69 RBI while Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos have combined for 260 hits and 188 RBI.

Jesus Luzardo gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 13-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 190 strikeouts this season. Luzardo is 5-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 60 strikeouts in his career against the New York Mets.

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 11, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo      Record this season: 13-6      ERA: 4.01
• Home Record: 6-2
• Last 5 against Mets: 3-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last nine road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The home team has won 14 of the last 15 games between the Mets and Phillies.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Mets and Phillies.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven home games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: David Peterson      Record this season: 9-5      ERA: 3.72
• Road Record: 4-4
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-2

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won 12 of their last 16 Thursday games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six Thursday games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 home games against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 12 night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last seven night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last six Thursday night games at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in each of his last three home appearances against the Mets.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (50) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as road underdogs.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last nine games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.401) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1333).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (399).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (133).
• The Mets rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (517).

Phillies vs Mets Prediction

The Mets continue their comical ways where they find ways to lose, and there’s no getting behind them with confidence. While Peterson has been solid on the season, he’s allowed 38 hits and 27 runs in his last 36.1 innings. As talented as the Mets are, this ridiculous losing stretch is hard to explain. The Phillies are piling up the wins, and Luzardo has allowed 7 hits and 2 runs in his last 12.2 innings. Two teams heading in different directions. Give me the Phillies and the reasonable price. You have to keep fading the Mets.