Phillies vs Orioles Prediction 8/4/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 4th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 63-48 this year after they won two out of three against Detroit by scores of 5-4, 5-7, and 2-0. In their game three win, Philadelphia scored once in the second inning and added an insurance run in the eighth for the victory. The Phillies recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Schwarber and Kepler, who both had one RBI in the win. Philadelphia started Sanchez, who allowed five hits and zero earned runs over 8.0 innings for the win, while Duran picked up the save.

Prior to that series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the White Sox, but did win two out of three against the Yankees before that. Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses over their last six games and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 516 runs with a .254 batting average and a .325 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 38 home runs and 88 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 15 home runs and 60 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Jesus Luzardo, who is 9-5 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 121.0 innings pitched this year. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 51-61 this season after they lost two out of three against the Cubs by scores of 0-1, 4-3, and 3-5. In their game three loss, Baltimore erased a 2-0 and 3-2 deficit, but lost on a walk-off home run in the ninth. The Orioles recorded seven hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Henderson, Cowser, and Noda, who each had one RBI in the loss. Baltimore started Young, who allowed five hits and zero earned runs over 4.2 innings, while Akin picked up the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Orioles won three out of four against the Blue Jays and two out of three against the Rockies. Baltimore has lost three of their last four games and they are currently last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.82 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a .265 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 489 runs with a .243 batting average and a .308 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 14 home runs and 43 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 13 home runs and 47 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Cade Povich, who is 2-5 with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 64.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Orioles

• The Phillies have won each of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have lost five of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in 14 of their last 17 night games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in five of their last six night games at Citizens Bank Park against AL East opponents.

Why the Orioles will beat the Phillies

• The Orioles have won each of their last four road games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have lost eight of their last 10 games following a home win.
• The Orioles have covered the run line each of their last eight games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Monday games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
• The Orioles have won the first inning in each of their last three night games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Orioles’ last eight night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the last six games between the Orioles and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last seven games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Orioles’ last 11 games at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in 22 of his last 23 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies’ last five games against the Orioles.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances at Citizens Bank Park against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Adley Rutschman has recorded a Double in each of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Orioles against NL opponents.
• Colton Cowser has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1017).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Orioles rank 28th in the league for walks this season (308).
• The Orioles rank 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.265).

Phillies vs Orioles Prediction 

Philadelphia has played inconsistently over the last two series, but they just won a series with Detroit and have a slim lead in the division. The Phillies are 35-20 at home this season, while the Orioles are 24-34 on the road. Baltimore had a ton of trouble generating runs in their series with Chicago and they are facing Luzardo, who has allowed 0, 6, 4, and 0 earned runs in his last four starts. The O’s are starting Povich, who has some rough numbers this year, but has been sidelined since June 15th. I think we could see some offense in this game and I like the over here.