Phillies vs Padres Prediction 7/11/25 MLB Picks Today

The Philadelphia Phillies are visiting the San Diego Padres on Friday, July 11^th at the Petco Park in the opening game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phillies vs Padres Prediction. We will examine:

The San Diego Padres recent form and player performance

The Philadelphia Phillies recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Philadelphia Phillies

Recent betting trends in games played between the Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres game

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 50-43 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL West. They have a 29-17 home record, and are 38-52 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 4-3 home victory over the Dbacks, and are playing the Marlins and the Nationals next.

The Padres have a .245 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .374 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.69 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 104 hits, adding a team-high 54 RBI and a team-high 16 home runs. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .291 batting average

Ryan Bergert (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 1-0 record, 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 54-39 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 24-23 road record, and are 39-51 in over/under. They are coming off a 13-0 road victory over the Giants, which ended their previous two-game losing streak. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games and are playing the Angels and the Red Sox next.

The Phillies have a .257 batting average this season, .330 OBP and .407 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 111 hits and in batting average with .294, while Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 68 RBI and a team-high 29 home runs.

Ranger Suarez (L) will take the mound for the Phillies, and he has a 7-2 record, 1.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The underdogs have won three of the Padres’ last four games.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 10 of the Padres’ last 11 games at Petco Park.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four road games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Padres have won the first inning in three of their last four games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last six home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last eight road games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last 11 night games following a win.
• The Phillies have won seven of their last eight night games against the Padres following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games following a home win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL West opponents.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Petco Park.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight night games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against the Padres.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last five night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last five night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven games between the Phillies and Padres.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last seven games against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (655).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (857).
• The Phillies are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Phillies vs Padres Prediction

The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Padres, and have won their previous series this season in Philly with 2-1 wins. Under is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Phillies vs Padres Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -160 road favorites. The Phillies have a better overall record, but the Padres have been very strong at home, while the Phillies are mediocre on the road. the Phillies have the pitching advantage, as Suarez has been excellent this season, and has been even better on the road, with a 1.06 road ERA, while Bergert for the Padres has a 6.75 home ERA. The Phillies have a better offense, and the Padres are weaker against lefties, so I like the Phillies to get the job done in this one.