Phillies vs Pirates Prediction 5/18/25 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies meet Sunday in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Phillies vs Pirates Prediction. This article will include a Phillies vs Pirates Pick.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 15-31 on the year and play the Reds, Brewers, and Diamondbacks next. The Pittsburgh Pirates are batting .218 on the season, have a .299 OBP, and a .324 slugging percentage. The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Ke’Bryan Hayes leads the Pittsburgh Pirates with 31 hits and 15 RBI, while Bryan Reynolds and Joey Bart have combined for 79 hits and 32 RBI.

Paul Skenes gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he is 3-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 53 strikeouts this season. This will be Skenes’ first career game against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 27-18 on the year and play the Rockies, Athletics, and Braves next. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .259 on the season, have a .338 OBP, and a .404 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 53 hits and 15 RBI while Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper have combined for 91 hits and 51 RBI.

Mick Abel will make his major league debut when he takes the mound today. Abel was 22-34 with a 4.53 ERA and 496 strikeouts in his minor league career. In AAA (Lehigh Valley) this year, Abel was 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 51 strikeouts.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last 11 day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have won nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line each of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last 10 home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three road day games.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Phillies have lost four of their last five day games following a win.
• The Pirates have won each of their last three day games against the Phillies following a road loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 day games at Citizens Bank Park following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Nick Castellanos has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two games as home underdogs.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies’ last five games against the Pirates.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies’ last eight home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded a Single in each of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T2nd in the league in Home Runs (15) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Phillies.
• Andrew McCutchen has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances after playing the previous day.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz ranks T2nd in the league in Steals (16) this season.

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction

Getting Skenes and a cheap price has its value, but it’s impossible to back the Pirates with confidence, given they’ve won just three games this month. The Pirates can’t string together offense. I usually have a rule of not backing pitchers making their big league debut, but the Phillies are the better team with the more consistent offense, so it probably doesn’t matter. Also, Abel is a top-10 prospect in the Phillies’ system with an above-average fastball and decent off speed pitches. Abel can miss bats at a respectable clip when he’s in a groove. Give me the Phillies and the cheap price.